9/12/05 NOW: Central and Northern Plains

[Jeff Snyder]

Several potentially-tornadic supercells have occured this afternoon and evening. One potentially tornadic supercell has essentially dissipated in northern Kansas, while another is in the process of weakening in northcentral Nebraska. Both of these storms had nice low-level mesocyclones / couplets -- the northern KS storm was located far from any radars, so the lowest scans were still 10kft AGL. The nc NE storm produced a tornado a couple of hours ago, while other potentially-tornadic storms have been ongoing across eastern SD and sw MN. There was a very nice low-level couplet associated with a supercell south of Montevideo, MN, though I question whether this verified owing to a relatively stable near-surface layer. Otherwise, strong flow pretty much throughout the troposphere (25+ kts at 850mb and stronger above) has aided in relatively favorable deep-layer shear profiles for supercells. Capping looked like it was going to be an issue for convection south of the SD/NE border, though this capping was obviously overcome in some places.

 

[Dan Christianson]

Can i get a BUST BUST , Can i get a BSUT BUST



all the way to yankton , didnt fire till late, should of suspected soemthing was wrong eghh"


days like these make my headache much worst ;-) :roll:

 

[Dan Christianson]

i should of left earlier too, i didnt leave town until 3:30pm close to there, was waiting for a friend to get off work it has to suck everytime he has the chance to go with me, its always a friggin BUST, and when im by myself i seem to do good.... oh well MAYBE tommorow something might happen but i doubt it... lets hope for some more fronts im not ready to see snow fly ;-(


What did you do Nick? did you go out at all?

 

[Scott Olson]

As of 10:15 PM our area has had four rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms run through. Pretty amazing, didn't hear any thunder all day chasing but this linear stuff is really active with a near continous rumble.

 

[Dan Christianson]

Nick i understood what you meant its all good, Scott ... 4 rounds huh" you gonna buy all us drinks who busted today? lol jk i know its off topic and will prb get deleted



theres still chances sat to sun into monday night i think for NE 30% .. well have to wait and see.

All im asking is for a hail core punch "

ttyl

 

[Scott Olson]

Originally posted by Dan Christianson
Nick i understood what you meant its all good, Scott ... 4 rounds huh\" you gonna buy all us drinks who busted today? lol jk i know its off topic and will prb get deleted



theres still chances sat to sun into monday night i think for NE 30% .. well have to wait and see.

All im asking is for a hail core punch \"

ttyl

LOL... Im not sure if I could afford that! Pretty impressive instability around 850mb and above right now. We are on round five right now which is just incredible. Though the least impressive of the last cells. I wish I had gotten on the cell that I was orignally under over by Alexandria, SD that went north of Brookings and became pretty impressive. This chase was like non-stop driving with the quick transitions and lots of mergers and releatively fast cells.

 

[Andrew Khan]

It looks like MN, is experiencing a tornadic supercell, or at least a supercell. RAD is exhibiting supercell structure, and I can for sure see rotation within the storm itself on RAD. My family is in MN right now, and reported to me that their is a tornado watch in effect, and that they saw MANY MANY lighting strikes, and bad wind. I wonder if they are going to see a tornado? It looks pretty favorible.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Andrew,

Are you looking at a current radar image? A decent supercell (possibly elevated) moved just nw of the Twin Cities a few hours, and there were a few more supercells across sw MN earlier this evening/afternoon. Otherwise, current radar shows a departing (and dissipating) bow echo complex heading through nw WI (on nose of LLJ), and another bow echo in sc MN, riding along the outflow boundary from the first MCS. There's still plenty of elevated instability, though nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, combined with evaporation cooling and outflow from previous and ongoing convection, tells me that there is a rather negligible tornado risk now. While some of the activity may be surface-based, the vast majority is elevated, and thus the risk for tornadoes has all but passed. Still some wind potential, however, particularly in the short-term ahead of the southcentral MN bow echo as elevated instability remains sufficient. Heavy rain appears to be the main threat at this time, as strong convection moves over areas that have already received heavy rainfall from the first complex. To some relief, the first (main) bow echo lacked the typical trailing stratiform region, so some of the heavy rainfall from earlier this evening has had some time to drain off I'd think.

 

[Andrew Khan]

I was loojking at it earlier, and also I did see the bow echo complex, but I don't know if the supercell was elevated, what makes you think that? My family just told me they did not see a tornado. But thry saw a lot of wind, and possible hail.