9/05/04 FCST: Plains/Midwest

[Mike Hollingshead]

Started for any thoughts on the Sunday chase ops. Omaha to Des Moines area would work for me at this time, but it's still 72 hours out. Just figured I'd get one started for anyone who wants to talk about the system.

 

[Glen Romine]

The last two cycles of the ETA has not shown adequate shear over the instability axis to support supercells. It is somewhat better by Sunday, but not quite there yet. Maybe this morning's run will be more encouraging.

Glen

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Yeah this run did not help things, but made them a fair amount worse. Perhaps a chase in c KS to e NE though.

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

I think it might be worth the short jaunt to the west if this pans out. Keep in mind that Monday is a holiday, and it's not that far away for me 8)

It may be a bit slow though, I wouldn't be surprised if the front passed through more quickly.

Tim

 

[Tony Laubach]

Yeah.. a 3 day weekend may warrent the venture just for yucks and grins.. definitely the last horrah for the year if I decide to head out.. I'll wait it out and see what happens, though.. 8)

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

New target is around Hebron Nebraska early. This will of course change again after tonights run. Interesting the 18z wants to bring out a 50knt 500mb jet across nc KS at 18z Sun but weakens it to 35knts by 0z. Just need a dang low to form around sc-se NE like that setup a weak or so ago in sw IA..with many other differences I know...like extreme instability...90-100knts at 300mb...etc etc.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Nothing would make me more giddy than heading to Hebron ... that place is almost magical. Day 3 outlines a slight risk just a bit further east of there, but like you say things will change 20 times between now and Sunday. For now it looks like enough shear and instability to light things up at least -

I'm starting to love that pocket between Hastings, Beatrice and down to the KS state line for chasing. It's like Nebraska's version of Throckmorton or Pratt -

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I've been a Nebraska resident for less than a week now, and I'm already looking at a chase opportunity. I can't say I'm missing Texas much right now...

Unfortunately, I'm still buried in moving boxes and have some social obligations to tend to, so I guess I'll just have to hope something cool pops up close to home.

 

[Tony Laubach]

My last observations of tomorrow's (now today's) risk of severe weather has chased me off.. although the ingredients coming together screamed squall line, I was happier when things where targeted in Central Kansas. A trip to the Missouri River isn't warrented for the risk to try and catch a squall line in hopes of an embedded supercell spawns a tornado.

With that said, I am going to take my name from the hat and enjoy the Labor Day weekend! Some lightning the last couple nights have at least given me something to enjoy.

Happy Labor Day all! 8)

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Jeff - welcome to the neighborhood - I'd bring some cookies up, but it is still looking like we should all probably chase today. Anyway, welcome north -

The ingredients may still come together for a possible chase day today (why should spring be over yet anyway?) ... it's time for my first amateur analysis today:

-Vigorous winds in place ... current OAX:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif

Lots of moisture in TOP:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/top.gif

I'm kind of liking the area from Hebron to Columbus - primarily just for CAPE/instability. Fcst helicity looks better in extreme NE Kansas/SE Nebraska into Iowa. ETA fcst LCLs are at 1000 near Columbus at 21z and drop below 1000 for most of NE Nebraska by 0z with LFCs below 1600 for the same period. While this may squall squall out ... will have to see if we can get some better helicities in the forecast area ... possibly some isolation in the cells further south?

Additional big caveat: Some heavy duty cloud cover in place right now on satellite ... there is a clearing in NE Kansas/SE Nebraska right now, but for much of the day I wonder about cloud cover ... lots of convective debris blowing off of the line in KS.

EDIT - just read the Day One language from Roger Edwards - he certainly seems confident in the ability for storms to maintain sustained rotation this afternoon and continues to reference the threat for 'a few tornadoes' ... good enough for me!

 

[Ben Prusia]

Right now out in Shawnee, we are stuck under some clouds, there is some clearing going on with the sun trying to poke out through the clouds, and with the satellites showing holes developing in the cloud cover from say Junction City eastward, also with some clouds breaking off of the leading edge of a boundary, looks like near Salina. CAPES today aren't going be that impressive, so it's more of a wait and see situation for me.

ETA says that CAPE levels will be highest along the MO River, looks like just east of Omaha on the Iowa side, and there is one little spec in east central Kansas, looks like on top of Oskaloosa. If I had to pick a target area for today, make it Holton, Kansas. But, I am in no way a meteorologist, yet..

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Today has some serious precip and cloud cover issues. I can't locate any target other then my home until any last second changes...and am not sure what or where those would be. Looks like a mess for sure.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm not a big fan of setups like this ... the SPC is predicting that the current line moving through Nebraska/Kansas will evolve into clusters of t-storms capable of becoming severe from late afternoon into early evening. This reminds us of a week ago Wednesday in Missouri, waiting hopefully for an elevated mess to spin its way into becoming surface-based. Currently the angle of this line marching over the plains is almost completely N-S oriented on satellite. SFC winds in the target area are moving straight up from the south providing minimal shearing ... even though the UL winds are strong today, wind at all levels is nearly unidirectional over TOP and OAX (though TOP actually looks pretty good):

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/top.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif

(Still like those moisture/temp lines in Topeka.) This still looks up in the air to me ... unless we see more veering of the winds, I'm still calling for a squall or convective cluster scenario. Been wrong so much lately in this neck of the woods that confidence is pretty low - target for me is extreme NE Kansas just across the river (home). Timing is also an issue because we may not see this line of storms reach the areas with best helicities until late afternoon into the evening -

Guess we'll see - - -

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Too bad the best looking area is under garbage!!!!!!!! I just don't see anything supercellular popping out of that mess. I am slightly worried about over into IA a ways ahead of the line as it's getting more and more unstable....but....no real convergence out there. At least I'm not driving to nw MO to see this(that wed sucked). This must be what chasing is like in the midwest and great lakes regions?

 

[JHadorn]

The most impressive thing I've seen today, data or otherwise, has been the kid in his backyard jumping on his tramampoline in the rain.

Seriously. What kid jumps on a tramampoline in the rain?

Hope everyone has a good Labor Day weekend. I'll be hoping for something to spin up in the line mentioned east of Beatrice in the Day One, but I'd honestly be shocked as all heck if anything happens.