9/03/04 NOW: Hurricane Frances [Florida]

Don't recall seeing this ever... Is there something that the hunters have to do with the data before sending it? Or do they just serve as relays and it would be an instrument error?

THE 951 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED IN THE 8 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY IS CORRECTED TO 957 MB. A STILL LATER HURRICANE
HUNTER REPORT INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS 960 MB.
 
Don't recall seeing this ever... Is there something that the hunters have to do with the data before sending it? Or do they just serve as relays and it would be an instrument error?
Click to expand...

Rob, it looks like there's obviously some calculations that go on. I'm guessing it's kind of like an altimeter thing... I'm guessing that they fly at 700mb, and calculate the MSLP from the height of the 700mb level -- their flight level. I think they probably took the 0z soundings/raobs and, with this new data, recalculated the MSLP from the extrapolation calculation. This resulted in a revised central pressure of 957mb.

EDIT: Now I'm confused... I thought this was the correction to the most recent ob. However, the timestamp on the correction is: "URNT12 KNHC 042224 COR VORTEX DATA MESSAGE". So, they recalculated central pressure and resent the message 3 hours after the fact?
 
Interesting satellite trends. It looks like there is some signficant dry-air entrainment going on along the south side of the storm. Cloud-tops have warmed signficantly along the southside of the eyewall in the past couple of hours. You can really see this dry air "river"/streak on water vapor imagery along the south and southeast part of the eye. There still looks to be some shearing going on, as there is no upper-level (outlfow-level) anticyclone motion in the southwest quadrant of the storm.
 
Getting sleep has been tricky at best, as I really don't want to be snoozing around 5-6 Sunday morning, when things are supposed to start getting really bad here. I still can't believe how slow the progress is on this thing. Pressure here has dropped to 29.64 inches. We do not have steady rain yet, but it looks like that's only about 10 miles away. That means it could take a couple hours for the steady part of that rain to reach us, which seems about as weird to me as anything.

The emerging tornado threat certainly complicates things. We don't have any damage here to speak of so far, but we are experiencing tropical storm force gusts, so it won't be long.
 
Now for the unhappy part....

Reports via the Hurricane Watch Net on 14.325MHz

In Nassau, an 18Yr old male was killed attempting to hook up a generator. It was still connected to live mains and he was electrocuted.

There are unconfirmed reports of a female drowning, possibly in Eleuthera.

The Coast Guard is searching for a missing vessel off the Florida coast. It is assumed sunk and all hands lost.

I fear the worst when the eyewall comes ashore in a populated area.
 
1:44 am Eastern. 1am NHC update says motion continues to the west-northwest. They must not be looking at the same radar loop I'm looking at - mine shows west-southwest. Maybe it's just a wobble. Or maybe my eyes are wobbling. It's pretty late.
 
I checked the speed of the "precip tags" in the eyewall and am getting about 80-90 mph. But after looking at the images for awhile it seems that I'm seeing faster tangential velocities just north of the eyewall (in the Vero Beach area). Regardless, the slow forward movement of the whole storm is of great concern to me. My wife's "second mom" lives a few miles north of Vero Beach, and this is where I had been when I was on vacation a month ago -- we are hoping for the best.

Also worth noting: just to add to the storm surge, Vero Beach and Fort Pierce tide peaked at about the time the eyewall came through:
Vero Beach Sun 12:28AM LDT 3.6 ft (high)

Not good news from what I can tell.

Tim
 
NHC's 0500 advisory has the pressure up to 963 mb and sustained winds “near 100 mph.â€￾ The 0445 EDT satellite image — even though it's just an IR — looks very impressive; I've posted it in the FCST thread by accident if you want to see it.
 
Cape Canaveral had a gust of 124mph earlier today. That's just one gust but that does start to exceed their ratings. I imagine the data coming out of Cape Canaveral is very accurate too.
 
Tornado Reports from Florida today
0630 PM BLIZZARD 4 W PALATKA 29.65N 81.72W
09/05/2004 PUTNAM FL EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH. PICKED
UP TRAMPOLINE AND THREW IT 100 YARDS.
Source:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/0409052253.nwus52.html

0501 PM TORNADO HOLLISTER 29.62N 81.81W
09/05/2004 PUTNAM FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN HOLLISTER. TREES DOWN IN
THE WOODS.
Source:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/0409052123.nwus52.html

0415 PM TORNADO 12 NW VALDOSTA 30.97N 83.42W
09/05/2004 LOWNDES GA PUBLIC
SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED AND TWISTED. ONE TREE WAS HURLED
INTO A GARAGE. TIME ESTIMATED.
Source:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTLH/0409052139.nwus52.html

0313 PM TORNADO CRESCENT CITY 29.44N 81.52W
09/05/2004 PUTNAM FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED BY POLICE OFFICERS IN CRESCENT
CITY. PROPERTY AND TREE DAMAGE REPORTED.
Source:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/0409051932.nwus52.html

0115 PM TORNADO PALATKA 29.65N 81.66W
09/05/2004 PUTNAM FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
POSSIBLE TORNADO SOUTH OF PALATKA ON HIGHWAY 19.
Source:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/0409052036.nwus52.html

0605 AM TORNADO CITRA 29.41N 82.11W
09/05/2004 F0 MARION FL EMERGENCY MNGR
POSSIBLE TORNADO ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED.
Source:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/0409051029.nwus52.html
Click to expand...
Local Storm Reports from the NWS offices in Florida:
Hit Refresh from time to time for updated information
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nwus52.KEYW.html -Key West FL
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nwus52.KJAX.html -Jacksonville FL
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nwus52.KMLB.html -Melbourne FL
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nwus52.KMFL.html -Miami FL
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nwus52.KTAE.html -Tallahassee FL
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.nwus52.KTBW.html -Tampa FL

Mike
 
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