8.9 Earthquake has struck Japan

[Darren Addy]

I guess it doesn't have to be identical to Chernobyl to be as serious as Chernobyl.
Quite a quote here:

The US-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) has said it agrees with the assessment of France's Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) that the incident at Fukushima should be classified as level 6 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES), one below Chernobyl. Following a number of explosions and a fire at the plant which released dangerous levels of radiation, ISIS said the situation had "worsened considerably" and was now closer to a level 6 event. "It may unfortunately reach a level 7," it added.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

This series of quakes is really an eye opener of just "how small and insignificant" the "human" race can be (aka: "Humbling").

We all brag about "300+ HP" in our cars after spending thousands of dollars in engine / racing upgrades, right?

Well lt's compare that to the energy release in this quake (JUST the big 9.0 one, NOT including the aftershocks).

This earthquake released a surface energy (Me) of 1.9±0.5×10^17 joules, dissipated as shaking and tsunamic energy, which is nearly double that of the 9.1-magnitude 2004 Sumatran earthquake that killed 230,000 people, and flung the 2,600 ton Apung 1 ship 2 to 3 km (1.2 to 1.9 mi) inland. "If we could only harness the [surface] energy from this earthquake, it would power [a] city the size of Los Angeles for an entire year," USGS director Marcia McNutt said in an interview. The total energy released (Mw) was more than 200,000 times the surface energy and was calculated by the USGS WPhase Moment Solution at 3.9×10^22 joules, slightly less than the 2004 Sumatra quake. This is equivalent to 9.32 teratons of TNT (approximately 600 million times that of the Hiroshima bomb, or 186,400 times as powerful as man's largest-ever explosive device, Tsar Bomba).

Hummm ... Lets convert that (the surface energy of "1.9×10^17 joules") to horsepower, over the coarse of 1 minute (60 seconds) using our oh-so-boring high-school physics (joules-per-second div-by 60 and div-by 746): About 424,486,148,347 HP ±0.5 ;-P

Now that's a really, really "big engine" ... So whta could it do?

Well, this much power took the ENTIRE earth (all 6.6 SEPTILLION tons of it), and MOVED it about 4" ... Think about it, ALL of us, sleeping Friday night in the US (during the Japanese quake), moved 4" in one minute, along with our beds, the drinks on our night-tables, our cars parked outside, our apartments / houses, entire town, states, continent, and all that ON it.

Japan itself moved about 8 feet closer to California / N America as well, all in about 60 seconds time.

Now, the nuclear stuff = bad - bad - BAD!

Reactors 1-3 were the first, then #2, and now #4 (all are melting down). If I was there, I would just stop pouring water on them and get the F-- out of there!

...Still seeing this stuff (and the devastation) is just sickening - physics aside.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm just your average Joe, and it was obvious to me from the get-go that this was a potentially HUGE situation. Not because I wanted it to be, or because I enjoy sensationalism, or because I have an agenda, but because each piece of news that came out seemed to be going in the wrong direction. As time went on, anyone who was congnizant of the facts as they were being reported, was more alarmed. Not less.

Darren -- I appreciate your comments, and I agree with them to a large extent (with minor differences in our expectations or "thresholds" to worry). I think of it similar to how I think about chasers talking about an upcoming severe weather event (or the local media talking about the potential for upcoming severe weather). Sure, a model run or series of model runs may indicate the potential for an epic, uber-nasty (scientific description ) tornado outbreak for the plains. But if *most* of the other model runs, as well as the majority of forecasts from the human forecaster (e.g. SPC), indicate something less epic, I think it's generally prudent to take the official line. Of course, the majority of the forecasts may end up underperforming, as the verification may follow or even exceed the most "epic event" forecasts. In the weather community, though, while it's often prudent to mention all non-negligible possible outcomes, it's usually a good bet that the "truth" will lie closer to consensus or to the forecast of the "experts". Again, though, no guarantees, as we all know!

As such, I'll stay back and just watch things unfold (with the help of those who post good info in this thread!). If the outcome is the one that was considered (again, perhaps entirely accurately) highly unlikely late last week, there' s little I can do about it anyway.

/ Primary news source for this event has been NHK and Al Jazeera
// Sometimes have some interesting reactions when I mention to people that I get some of my current-events info from Al Jazeera
/// Don't need to use slashes on this forum -- oops.

 

[Darren Addy]

"Aftershocks" (goofy term) are starting to settle down.
On UTC 3/11 after the 9.0 there were 117 quakes.
On UTC 3/12 there were 73
On UTC 3/13 there were 41
On UTC 3/14 there were 26
On UTC 3/15 there have been 18, with about 3 hours to go.

EDIT: SCRATCH the water from helicopters idea.

 

[Gordon Spencer]

Wow this is stuff is really hitting home for me . I had been Japan 10 times in my former career as a Concert tour manager . Have flown into Sendai airport numerous times , travelled extensively on the bullet trains and been all over Japan. Hope all the folks I used to work with over there are OK. The Japanese are a really amazing people

 

[Darren Addy]

Still can find no word on the latest explosion in No. 2 (2nd one). I think it is fair to guess that it was a hydrogen explosion from the zirconium in the reactor getting hot. Unless there is also zirconium in the spent fuel pool. Haven't read closely enough for that to jump out at me. Anyway the presence of hydrogen means only one thing:

The Zirconium metal of the fuel tubes reacts with water vapor at elevated temperatures (above 1200 °C if I remember correctly) The reaction is simply: Zr + 2 H2O => ZrO2 + 2 H2 This is proof, that parts (at least) of the fuel rods were not immersed in water, but it does not prove melting.

- source

The Cesium and radioactive iodine is your direct evidence that you have fuel melting. It seems they have mostly stopped talking about such things and are only interested in the micro/milliservients of radioactivity, not what it is made of. Not a lot of talk about the mox mixture that is exposed in No. 2 either (after warning that plutonium sticks around a heck of a lot longer, before the No. 2 reactor breach) - which has also not yet been conclusively admitted to.)

Any corrections to what I've said above?

CRAP. New fire at No. 4. "Flames are rising from the reactor" ??? Probably more imprecise language. Has to be the spent fuel, doesn't it?

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78378.html

 

[Mike Deep]

AP is reporting a run on potassium iodide pills in the US.

der der der americuh

 

[Greg Campbell]

Nope, not in the grand scheme of things because my personal beliefs include full belief in God and the Bible and that this is only the beginning of the greater pains.

Nice.
Well then, I guess we should all bow our heads and pray for another 200,000+ dead!
"Bring on the End of Days, Brother!"

FWLIW, I was thinking only about the nuclear issue. First there were reports that one reactor might have problems. Then it was 'under control.' Then another reactor was starting to overheat. Then one exploded! Then the other! And a third. And now we hear that even more of them have boiling waste storage tanks, ruptured containment, and who knows what else. It's like a cheesy 80's Irwin Allen disaster movie, except that it's real.

I'm thinking this may produce some profound changes in the Japanese government. I think we were all horrified / appalled by the Prime Minister's press conference last night The insane (what other word?) lack of detail and information seems criminal from our western POV. Even the Japanese, with their vastly different culture, must be asking, "Do these people know WTF they are doing?" and "Why won't they tell us anything real?"

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Nice.
Well then, I guess we should all bow our heads and pray for another 200,000+ dead!
"Bring on the End of Days, Brother!"

No, I don't like the loss of life any more than the next compassionate person, I do feel for these people. I am certainly not one of those people who think they had it coming. I cannot imagine having to live through what they are living. If that was in America..... Well I am ashamed to say what all America would fall into but... I do pray for their souls

FWLIW, I was thinking only about the nuclear issue. First there were reports that one reactor might have problems. Then it was 'under control.' Then another reactor was starting to overheat. Then one exploded! Then the other! And a third. And now we hear that even more of them have boiling waste storage tanks, ruptured containment, and who knows what else. It's like a cheesy 80's Irwin Allen disaster movie, except that it's real.

I'm thinking this may produce some profound changes in the Japanese government. I think we were all horrified / appalled by the Prime Minister's press conference last night The insane (what other word?) lack of detail and information seems criminal from our western POV. Even the Japanese, with their vastly different culture, must be asking, "Do these people know WTF they are doing?" and "Why won't they tell us anything real?"

Even the Japanese with their honor are doubting anything told them at this point. The stories change before the statements made are even finished, contradictions are even sometimes in the same sentence. In this modern world the only reason I can come up with on why there was not immediately more equipment and help on scene was that radiation level came up immediately in the area. Seeing some of the video I have seen I still see 6 digit death tolls, I see as many or more without homes, it has got to be a living nightmare over there for those poor people.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

White smoke being seen rising from either #3 or #4 reactor; the guy on the press conference basically said they have no idea yet where it's coming from as they can't get close enough to to reactors (due to the radiation) to find out.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78416.html

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Smoke may be coming from No. 3 reactor's fuel pool: TEPCO (10:53) ??

I thought it had been blown up ....

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

None of the fuel pools have blown up. Even when the secondary containment buildings asploded, the fuel pools (as far as anyone knows) remained in place.

 

[David Wolfson]

They're just reporting that all workers at the plant are being evacuated due to high radiation levels. Oi, oi, and oi!

 

[Jason Harris]

Bad:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-radiation-risk/2011/03/15/ABHojoa_story.html

Japan spokesman says workers unable to continue efforts at nuclear plant due to radiation risk