8.9 Earthquake has struck Japan

[Darren Addy]

This most recent blast seems to have taken a bigger toll on worker's lives:

Seven people are missing and three people have been injured by the explosion at the Fukushima 1 nuclear plant, the AFP news agency reports, quoting an official from Tepco, the company which operates the plant.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Video of the second explosion looks markedly worse than the first one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XhAXhSj8lM

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) using the latest data (18Z):
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hysplitout/191273_trj001.gif

Probably better to run the dispersion/plume model. Of course there are a bazillion settings, I just picked a plume ranging from 0-100m or so.
Loop of plume:
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hysplitout/21126_cloop.gif
Particles:
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hysplitout/21126_ploop.gif

Time of arrival:

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hysplitout/21126_toa01.gif

 

[David Wolfson]

I also liked the write-up link Aaron posted. Unfortunately it has been also already proven not entirely accurate. Significant levels of radiation have been detected far away from the site, and the fact that the second explosion hurt a number of workers indicates they weren't just simply venting the hydrogen into the outer containment in order to spare the environment some radiation -- they had no choice.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

This one towards the end shows the whole explosion as well a little closer up. Not good at all. This is the one supposedly loaded with MOX fuel.

 

[Jason Harris]

Any footage of the wave as it comes up on the shore? As in, you can see it coming right out of the ocean?

Here's one that does show arrival on shore:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12725646

 

[Darren Addy]

I thought I was seeing this in japanese to english translations last night, but misinterpretation is so easy I didn't want to say anything, but this morning it appears that we have a third reactor's cooling fail.
First was Fukushima Dai-ichi plant unit No. 1 & No. 3. Now unit No. 2's cooling unit has failed and sea water is again being used.

BBC live at 11z is saying

Officials say two other reactors have developed problems with their cooling systems,

Seems to me that they need to triple (or now quadruple) their capacity for sea water to give each the same amount. (the water is being turned to steam by the heat so its not like filling a bucket and you're done).

Japanese reactor operators now have little choice but to periodically release radioactive steam as part of an emergency cooling process for the fuel of the stricken reactors that may continue for a year or more even after fission has stopped. The plant’s operator must constantly try to flood the reactors with seawater, then release the resulting radioactive steam into the atmosphere, several experts familiar with the design of the Daiichi facility said.

That suggests that the tens of thousands of people who have been evacuated may not be able to return to their homes for a considerable period, and that shifts in the wind could blow radioactive materials toward Japanese cities rather than out to sea.

-NYTimes

Also, big thanks to Aaron for the ready.arl.noaa.gov links. I've been wondering where that info could be found.
EDIT: I'm doing something wrong trying to run hysplit. Any chance somebody can put together a tutorial for running the public internet trajectories from the Fukushima location?

Reactor No. 2 fuel rods "almost totally exposed".

Before and after satellite photos: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/13/world/asia/satellite-photos-japan-before-and-after-tsunami.html

For the first time (that I have seen) we have the comments of the engineer that designed the steel containment structures, that are (allegedly) still holding:

Japanese engineer Masashi Goto, who helped design the containment vessel for Fukushima's reactor core, says the design was not enough to withstand earthquakes or tsunamis and the plant's builders, Toshiba, knew this. . . . his greatest fear is that blasts at number 3 and number 1 reactors may have damaged the steel casing of the containment vessel designed to stop radioactive material escaping into the atmosphere. . . . the reactor (no. 2 and no. 3) uses mox (mixed oxide) fuel, the melting point is lower than that of conventional fuel. Should a meltdown and an explosion occur, he says, plutonium could be spread over an area up to twice as far as estimated for a conventional nuclear fuel explosion. The next 24 hours are critical, he says.

 

[Darren Addy]

This is pure conjecture, but I believe that we will have at least three complete core meltdowns in Japan before all is said and done. However, after what I have read, I believe that all will still be fully within containment, which will actually be a victory for the industry as a whole.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Darren, what sort of errors is it giving you?

Significant levels of radiation have been detected far away from the site

Well, I suppose the question is what is a significant level (in the scheme of things). US says their sailors got a month's worth of exposure @ 100 miles away from the plant. Not good, but not exactly horrible either.

Reactor No. 2 fuel rods "almost totally exposed".

From BBC:

They warned of a possible meltdown when the fuel rods became exposed after the pump stopped as its fuel ran out.

I realize things are all messed up in Japan, but you'd think they'd be able to get fuel to the dang pump.

The key is at what temperature. Things *should* be cooling down as we go in time since the reactors were scrammed.

 

[Darren Addy]

The good news is that the explosions that have happened so far have not compromised the steel reactor containment (if we believe what we are being told). The bad news (very bad news) is that the explosions have also taken out 4 of the 5 fire trucks that are being used to pump sea water into Reactor No. 2. Can't keep up with Reactor No. 2 sea water pumping. Temp and pressures rising there.

I think we are going to see how well the plants' design for containment of a complete core meltdown works, in at least one of these reactors, before all is said and done.

TEPCO is reporting:

In Unit 2 the amount of radiation around the site: 3130 microsievert

I found another source that stated that:

radiation levels of 1,015 micro sievert have been found outside the plant, which is the equivalent to receiving the maximum amount of healthy exposure someone can get in one year, in one day

.

So the current amount of radiation "around the site" is currently three times that.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Darren, I think that there was a great possibility that the #3 reactor at #1 plant was breached. Even in it wasn't what would have been left to attach any cooling equipment too? That was an intense explosion from that little area with way too much debris. The MOX Plutonium fuel in #3 is far more radioactive / toxic that the uranium in #1

We have a third reactor in meltdown,

Late Monday, the chief government spokesman said there were signs that the fuel rods were melting in all three reactors, all of which had lost their cooling systems in the wake of Friday's massive earthquake and tsunami

"Although we cannot directly check it, it's highly likely happening," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told reporters.

Some experts would consider that a partial meltdown. Others, though, reserve that term for times when nuclear fuel melts through a reactor's innermost chamber but not through the outer containment shell.

Officials held out the possibility that, too, may be happening.

I read yesterday that the containment for these reactors were built on a 60's design that was only built to contain a 60 MW reactor. #1 was like 465 MW and #3 was 1,100 MW. The reactors containment design will not hold that much heat if it goes into full meltdown which at this point may not be avoidable.

There have been way too many inconsistencies in the reporting of the problem IMO, first they were not to the point of pumping the seawater in when #1 exploded and now they say they were etc. At this point I think they would tell any lie to save their nuclear industry.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

And now Kyodo is reporting:

Fuel rods at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant's No. 2 reactor were fully exposed at one point after its cooling functions failed, the plant operator said Monday, indicating the critical situation of the reactor's core beginning to melt due to overheating.

Which takes that plant to all three of its reactors that were operating at that single facility that day into meltdown. Taking us to 4 reactors melting down out of the 6 that had issues.

and

Radiation twice the maximum seen so far detected at nuke plant Monday: TEPCO

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Yeah, looks like #2 may go into full meltdown due to someone accidentally turning off the air flow gauge, which didn't allow more water to be pumped in. Hopefully they can release the pressure on the reactor itself (there are multiple redundant valves that should allow this), as a buildup of steam pressure that explosively compromised the reactor would be pretty terrible.

At any rate, they said that the rods were fully exposed for at least 2 and a half hours. I imagine a good deal of the uranium melted and is now re-frozen at the bottom of the reactor by now.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

They are trying to cool #2 with the one remaining truck they are supposed to also be cooling the #1 and #3 reactor with. This many days later I cannot imagine how they don't more equipment on scene short of a radiation level so high that no one else will come into the area to help in spite of all of the offers.

 

[Darren Addy]

Wind direction is not favorable for the Japanese mainland for about the next 30 hours:
http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/sendai_airport_shinko

The Japanese incident at the Fukushima plant could be classed as level 5 or 6 on the international scale of 1 to 7, according to The French ASN nuclear safety authority . It is currently rated at level 4.
I agree. It is currently more serious than Three Mile Island, in terms of released radiation (both controlled and blasts) and currently involves three (partial) meltdowns to TMI's one. (TMI was rated a 5).

Classification system with examples: http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Factsheets/English/ines.pdf