8/9/04 FCST|Gulf| Bonnie

Bonnie has a tight circulation, not even noticed until a hurricane hunter aircraft reconned it. Waters in the gulf are warmer than those of the Atlantic, and there's some available moisture to feed from. We can expect some intensification.

The National Hurricane Center puts landfall in the Eastern FLA Panhandle Thursday afternoon. At that time I'd expect a moderate tropical storm, but nothing of epic proportions. Coastal flooding and light wind damage will be the major effects.

Bonnie will, however, serve to obliterate any outdoor plans folks may have for the upcoming weekend. I expect Friday and Saturday to be a total washout from GA to VA, with GA, and SC getting hit Friday, and NC and VA to get it early Saturday. The weekend can be saved if the cold front due later in the week can push Bonnie quickly out of the way. If that scenario occurs, expect Bonnie to quickly cross Southern GA, and push out to sea to redevelop. By then, steering forces will push it further out to sea, possibly threatening Bermuda early next week.
Whatever you do don't use the NHC's experimental wind forecast to make any decisions. Alex thoroughly crushed all those forecasts. Actually, Alex blew away all the operational forecasts as well. I'm just giving the NHC a hard time...they do an amazing job.

Right now I am a little more interested in TD 3.
Forecasting Alex had to be a frustrating task. Bonnie (TD 2) isn't cooperating much either, as last week she was supposed to be a hurricane heading between Bermuda and the Carolina coast right about now. Isabel's forecast track was right on the money, even 5 days out. I was surprised how well that verified last year.

I budgeted for one Atlantic coast hurricane chase this season, neither of these two upcoming storms look to be the one. However, Bonnie (and possibly Charley-to-be) could be a major inland flooding concern here at home if the tracks shift to the west. The mountains can't take much rainfall, 3 inches or more means a flooding disaster here.

Will be interesting, as always, to see how these things evolve.
My biggest concern at this time is that there is a chance that TD3 and Bonnie MIGHT make landfall in roughly the same areas of the Gulf coast. That's a bad scene no matter how weak either one ends up being at landfall time. My other concern is that I'm gonna be flying away from and back to Orlando (where I live) this weekend to visit family up in Chicago. I have a feeling it may be an interesting situation here on both ends of the weekend, even if both storms pass to our west.
TD 3 is now Charlie. Could somebody please start a disc thread.

Bonnie is now forecasted to be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall.
I am more concerned about Charlie being a more potent storm than what Bonnie could become. I am heading to Florida (as I am on vacation already anyway with plans to go to Florida :) ). I'll be at the Keys on Wednesday and up in Orlando until Sunday morning then heading northwest toward Nashville towards Kansas City.
If NHC has the paths correct... Charlie could be come a major storm. Splitting all the islands... making it to the Gulf. If it gets to the Gulf as a Cat 2, lookout. We could have a major cane on hand if other variables work out. What I am worried about is Bonnie stirring up the Gulf and lowering the water temps. While Bonnie may hit land as a marginal cane, it could also protect the coast from Charlie becoming a MAJOR cane.

This same sort of thing happened two years ago with Lili/Isadore.

Once again, this is just taking the paths for granted. We all know how reliable they are this far out!

What I am worried about is Bonnie stirring up the Gulf and lowering the water temps.

Yep, that could be a problem. However, considering how warm the gulf is (approaching 90) even a lot of mixing wont lower the temps below 80.
Bonnie is encountering some shear, which will inhibit intensification through most of today and this evening. I think forecasting her to be more than the most minimal of hurricanes at landfall is generous at best.

I cast my bet for landfall to be west of the anticipated track. I'd say between the Delta and the AL/FL border. I don't think the cold front will have the oomph to initiate a rapid recurve of the storm. If the front stalls out, we could even have all that energy spread out to make one heck of a heavy rain event across the southeast.

With all that fresh moisture saturating the ground, and what will then be a lack of significant sterring currents, Charley could be a real nightmare for the southeast.
With all that fresh moisture saturating the ground, and what will then be a lack of significant sterring currents, Charley could be a real nightmare for the southeast.

NHC has new guidance out. By Saturday they expect it be in Canada. It might not be that bad for rainfall afterall.
Bonnie is entering e region of relativly low shear, expect some strengthening today. NHC still holds landfall in the western FLA panhandle, and forecast it to quickly accelerate, following a path 100 miles west, but parralell to the coast.

It looks like the weekend will be saved for the southeast, but New England will see rain this weekend from the remnants.
Here are some images/meteogram I created for buoy 42001 out in the Gulf, under Bonnie:

The first graphics shows where the station [42001] is located, the second is the meteogram:


Wind speed is in KNTS, waveheights are in FT. Looks like Bonnie is starting to move away from 42001 as of 17Z, as I notice a wind speed drop, though wave heights still around 12FT.
By the 1215UT image, the coldest of Bonnie's cloudtop temps — which I suppose would be a stand-in for the eye; it's a spot about the size of Lake Okeechobee — is 50 miles SSW of Appalachiola, FL.
The eyewall of bonnie is approaching the florida coast. It appears to me that the eyewall could have an embedded supercell on the SE side per BREF and velocity radar images. Can anyone comment?