8/7/05 FCST: MN

Chase Target:
Milaca, MN (20 mi NE of St. Cloud).

Timing:
7 PM CDT.

Storm type:
Isolated supercells with low-end severe hail (1â€￾).

Discussion:
Current WV imagery (loop ending 21:31 UTC) indicates several waves imbedded in a 25kt WNWRLY upper flow. Noteworthy is a band of enhanced UVV’s extending along a BRD-STC-LYV line, and upstream from that is a more extensive area of upward vertical motion just entering WRN MN between BKX and FAR. Mesoanalysis guidance suggests 4000J/kG of uninhibited MLCAPE between the FSD and AXN areas, while visible satellite has shown a marked increase in CU over the last hour in the region bounded by AXN-BRD-STC with an ACCAS field just E of there. Meanwhile, deep layer shear is increasing to 35 kts in WRN MN. Despite convective temperatures in the low- to mid-90’s, expect storm initiation around 7 PM CDT, with the most likely location near a surface boundary analyzed from near LXL to ADC in CNTRL MN (NW of St. Cloud). Given the generous amount of instability along with the aforementioned shear expect some severe storms, with 1â€￾ hail the primary severe threat.

- bill
 
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