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7/14/2010 FCST: MN/IA/WI

I am a little bit concerned for the tornado potential in the target areas. First of all, per the 12z 700 mb map, some very high temperatures are being advected into the target area. This should increase the strength of the EML and cap and help hold of storms. I'm seeing 14 C, 15 C and 11 C temperatures, but considering the strong upper level lift combined with the explosive air currently within the boundary layer...these temperatures should not hold off convection.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/10071412_OBS/MPX.gif

That is quite a sounding at MPX. I'm seeing a very dangerous situation unfolding across the southern MN and WI area.

My thoughts are that near the edge of that warm 700 mb air mass will be the areas for supercells. That way the linear forcing will be far away from influencing the discrete storms.
 
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Surface winds are veering across a large part of the target area, with no stations showing backed winds in southeast Minnesota. On top of that cloud cover is limiting heating here in the cities, but looking at obs down in IA I see much better heating. That new MD has me a little confused though. I honestly don't know what to think at this point, I'm starting to lose confidence in today.
 
Surface winds are veering across a large part of the target area, with no stations showing backed winds in southeast Minnesota. On top of that cloud cover is limiting heating here in the cities, but looking at obs down in IA I see much better heating. That new MD has me a little confused though. I honestly don't know what to think at this point, I'm starting to lose confidence in today.

If you look at 850mb as well as at 700mb, there is a very warm dry punch with axis oriented SW-NE from NC KS through Lincoln and Omaha and up to just west of Mason City to near Albert Lea. This surely will not be a favorable area for convection (under this dry punch). However, just behind that, things cool and moisten significantly, and that's probably where convection will be able to persist for longer. I'm not saying convection won't initiate in the dry punch, but if it does it's going to have a hard time staying alive for long.
 
Holy cow. The IA, S MN, and S WI are going to see some wild weather today when things get going. It seems that the corn fields in IA have created some 90ish/80 ish dewpoints. This is surely some explosive air underneath the cap.

I'm willing to be that there will be an 18z sounding within the area from many stations in order to assess the atmosphere's potential for severe weather.
 
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