8/4/07 FCST: MN / IA / WI / IL / MI

[Colin Davis]

Agree with Brian on a bit more optimism with a look at the RUC...after being somewhat disappointed with the ETA/NAM/WRF. Best winds and solid instability are coexisting more with the RUC than the ETA/NAM/WRF, but it looks as if this has the same major problem as yesterday's setup - lack of strong 500 winds. They are *there* and could be overcome with the 700s/850s/SFC winds, but only time will tell. It certainly did happen yesterday (knocking on the desk next to me as we speak).

My guess would be to set up shop somewhere near the three borders region of Iowa, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I like the substantial amount of clearing behind this mornings initial precip shield. CAPES are rapidly rising and are already AOA 1000 J/KG in locations behind the precip. Latest CCFP analysis shows the Low centered on the SD NE border, with associated front along a EAX to LSX line. ADDS indicates precip breaking out around 21z. Which would be around peak heating. SWODY 1 out soon.. Cant wait to see it

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Appears things may be beginning to come together near the area just to the West of I-29 between Sioux City and Sioux Falls. Appears a cu and accas field is beginning to form in the area, some slight midlevel cooling is evident per the RUC mesoanalysis with 12C at H7 advecting back as far West as the I-29 corridor, 30-35kt 500mb flow is indicated over the region, with CAPE up to 3000j/kg, appears as though most composite indices are maxed out tucked up right against the surface low, I still like the hwy 60 corridor from Sheldon down towards Le Mars IA and points E for convection later this afternoon. I’m beginning to run out of contemplating time.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Sitting in LeMars IA. The dead flat cu are now starting to grow finally. You can see the cooling at 500mb spreading east above this now. Just looking around it shouldn't be much longer before something goes.

 

[John Wetter]

Sitting in Spencer, IA currently. Getting encouraged with vertical development in the area and a few reflectivity hits now just to my SE in Pocahontas county. Will likely see if it can get rooted. Liking all parameters except the higher H7 temps coming in.

-John

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Still at LeMars, growth has sucked but maybe now it is going to improve. Seeing best growth yet in a tower near but just se of town and another east a good bit. Jeez soon as I type this that near tower looks like it hit a big fat wall.