8/25/2004 FCST: Plains

[Glen Romine]

Mike, If I were in your position - I'd start drifting east. I don't [edit DO] think the threat of torns will stay ahead of the MCV to your north currently. Yes, that stuff is still elevated now, but I'd expect it to start building south toward the instability axis soon. With the rate winds are veering in your area - check out TOP for what's coming - I'd be eager to stay out of that mess. Good luck!

Glen

 

[Glen Romine]

Update, new torn watch just issued - for much of n. MO, extreme s. IA into extreme w. IL. I guess we could drift back to the nowcast thread that Jeremy already has ready for us.

[edit] Note: the KC metro was snubbed from the watch area. I agree.

Glen

 

[Amos Magliocco]

"Since there's no ongoing convection as part of the this afternoon's setup, a NOW thread is premature. "

I suppose you'd need to ask the thread starter -- SPC seems to think that the IA MCS will play an important role in the afternoon activity.

"BOUNDARIES FROM CURRENT MCS MOVING ACROSS IA INTO IL ...
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY MID AFTERNOON."

I wanted to address this matter now that I'm home and on a better connection. First, we have never begun a NOW thread because of early morning showers that may or may not impact the late afternoon scenario. By this logic, we would have started the NOW thread the night before when storms in northeast Kansas and central Nebraska were laying outflow that would effect severe storms on the 25th.

More importantly, something to keep in mind is that Target Area is designed to be easy to navigate for chasers actually in the field. Watching from home is great with the broad pipe, but on the road bandwidth doesn't come cheap. Chasers trying to monitor ST during data stops (which many do now to our great credit) should not have to sort back and forth between FCST and NOW threads because of confusion over which is appropriate when.

So I agree that the elevated morning showers would impact the later storms, but they don't fit the definition of the NOW thread.