8/24/05: NOW: Central Plains

And boom, convection has now begun in the area south of AVK, OK it is already showing cell P3 (weathertap) tops to 46k and up to 1" hail. Will be interesting what this cell and area produces.
 
anythings possible w/ this boundary in central oklahoma that extends north and eastward
Possibility does exist that storm could hit and ride the boundary causing enhance shear and the cell to forms its own vorticity. Gabe was telling me that just a while ago. Jeff Snyder also just told me that this very similar set up was in SW Kansas last week and 6 tornadoes came out of it.
I cant get over the amount of instability and the ridiculous dewpoints here. Something at least will go really severe

** new watch out
 
Originally posted by CHris Whitehead
Jeff Snyder also just told me that this very similar set up was in SW Kansas last week and 6 tornadoes came out of it.
I cant get over the amount of instability and the ridiculous dewpoints here. Something at least will go really severe

** new watch out

For the record, I was talking about last thursday, though there were 3 tornadoes in central Kansas, and the mid and upper level flow much considerably stronger (35-45kts IIRC).

That said, whenever you have strong-extreme instability (MLCAPEs >3500) and a good boundary that is favorably oriented, I can never rule out a brief tornado. I'm on the fence now as to head out northwest of OKC or not, a the low-level shear profile (per VNX VAD/VWP) is pretty nice, especially given the degree of instability. If only we had strong midlevel flow... I'm ending this, since I'm trying to keep it a NOW post and not a FCST post... I'll just say that a storm that can latch on to the OFB the lies north of OKC would be nice.

EDIT: I see that OUN has issued a Warning Decision Update (under Area Weather Update) just recently... These are, IMO, very cool products and give a little more meteorological insight into the warning process. http://kamala.cod.edu/ok/latest.flus74.KOUN.html
 
I see on weathertap animated radar that this cell sw of Enid and south of AVK has some boundaries showing up very near it on radar. It also seems to have a different motion than cells sw and n, ne of it. It current motion is almost due north with the boundary oriented to the se. This could be interesting to monitor a bit. If I was chasing this is the area and probable cell I would be on. I am also interested in those coming up from the sw of this cell as they move into this area.

Still upper winds are weak and only get a little better once crossing the KS border. Anvil level winds for this storm are also almost from south and I don't think that will help it as it rides over rain cooled downdraft air. May help form a later mess and mcs though.
 
Cell O5 just west of P3 now is an uncoordinated meso and you can visibly see a boundary connecting the two cells on radar.

Also cell P3 has also turned right and is somewhat following the arcing boundary that extends to it's ne and then arcs to the se. This of course should help it's storm relative flow and torn potential if only briefly.
 
Svr warn issued for cell in Major county OK with up to golfballs.

Well that's about it for me as I have to go do other things. Keep me posted via now on the development of what happens.
 
Currently in Hennessey, heading east in anticipation of going north. The storm to our north (south of Enid) had nice midlevel rotation for a while, and even had a TVS for a scan or two. The rotation aloft, per VNX radar, has weakened momentarily (I hope)... The base looks okay, though OFB surged to the southeast of the updraft, which is seldom a good thing. I'll post more should we see anything interesting.
 
There is a pretty good amount of 0-3km SRH in that area with values from 300-400 m2/s2. It's right on the western edge of a 30-35kt LLJ which should help sustain it for some time as it moves NE. I'd say there is a small window of oppurtunity for this cell to take off before to much radational cooling and only 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE to work with in the first place.
 
Lots of warnings on a continuing cluster of storms in KS...

Hail up to the size of golfballs and 60-70 mph being the main threats, however one tornado warned storm continues to look pretty menacing just to the SE of Hutchinson with some pretty decent low level rotation looking at SRMV attm...
 
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