8/20/2004 FCST: Ohio Valley

Not too sure what to think about on tomorrow... SPC just went from SEE TEXT to a SLGT on SWODY1... Pretty decent instability and wind fields, so we'll see...

Anybody else have any opinions?
The IND office has been calling for this on their hazardous outlooks for the past three days, but I was surprised to see us go from nothing in the two day to the 5% tornado area updated just over an hour ago.
As they said at best 1000 to 1500 MLCape, concurring with their own SREF instabilities, but the OH valley will be in the zone on the edge of this trough as it tracks eastward.
With less sun in the sky I'll have to hit the hay now so I can get up and out the door early this time. I'm hoping to bag one more before the snowplow needs gas.
Wilmington & n. Indiana are both mentioning possibilty of isolated tornados this afternoon -however 1300 SPC day 1 is showing 5% across se Indiana & across central and southern Ohio. Fair SRH (150) from se Ind ne across Ohio and CAPE is not very good especially on the RUC model. I don't see a very good day for chasing - too overcast and grungy here in west central Ohio and not forecasted for clearing although satationary front is progged to push north from s. Ohio/Ind a little this afternoon which may improve chasing potential south of here if some clearing and heating occurs. Good luck chasing to anybody hitting the road this PM.
Seems like cloud cover is going to be the biggest factor today. Cloud cover affected the last two days activity in OH.

11:00 AM and only the hilly unchaseable section of OH is getting any sun.

Still might have to go out. Would hate to miss anything in my home state.

Might watch radar/satellite from home for a few more hours. I am 1 hr out of Columbus.

Satellite shows cloud cover is not breaking.. will wait for another hour or so before heading out.
The new 1630Z outlook is already out (20 minutes early) and the 5% risk is now way up in PA and NY. Our typical eastern USA fly in the ointment - cloud cover - looks to be making its usual appearance today. A break in the clouds is here in WV though.

Have a lot of things to do at home today, so I'm going to sit this one out for now.
I went so far as to stack the gear on the kitchen counter before I went to bed and I was running through the setup as I fell asleep last night. I liked the strong wind fields and stationary boundary. Alarm rang at seven this morning and of course, it's pouring rain outside and then I knew---all the model precip wasn't convective feedback after all. Oh well.
A few cells are taking advantage of the sliver of clearing over central WV but look disorganized at the moment. Will be interesting to see if that little bit of sun was enough to help things along. They're moving right at me, so it looks like a backyard chase today.
I noticed a minimally intersting cell in WV good luck with that one Dan.

Tornado warnings in New England sever in mid PA. Ohio has nothing but clouds and intermittent rain in the area that was briefly 5%.

I am going to try not to even look at the weather for the rest of the day.
Sure had my hopes up for today.

MCD for Tennessee.

Someone needs to start a thread for NOW in the Texas panhandle, because there are a few nice supercells roaming the high plains of Texas NOW!!!