8/14/04 NOW: Charley, strike #2 [Carolinas]

[Tim Vasquez]

Looks like NHC has a strike prediction for South Carolina for sometime this morning as a hurricane (probably Cat 1 or Cat 2). At the very least it should graze the coastline. Anyhow this thread will be exclusively for short-term discussion regarding that second landfall or grazing of the Carolinas.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Interestingly just in the past hour or so (0900Z) the storm appears to have lost much of its central core.... it consists mostly of a forward flank precipitation shield. This is in spite of it being on the edge of radar coverage. It's hard to even speculate how weak or strong the surface circulation is.

Storm also appears to be accelerating already beyond the current forecasts.

 

[Pat Palmer]

At 8am EDT, IR shows rapid intensification in the NW quadrant. It remains to be seen if the storm can re-wrap itself before landfall. Charley is already beginining to interact with the front, which should absorb some of his energy. I had expected a greater rain impact by now in my area (Northern VA), but we'llsee what happens by the afternoon.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

NE Quad Intensfying

At 900 a.m. EDT, hurricane Charley is making its second landfall between Charleston and Georgetown, SC. The NE quadrant of the storm has intensified in the last hour on NWS radar. But because of its interaction with the coastline and the stationary frontal boundary, the storm is not able to wrap back around and maintain its eyewall structure. In fact that section of the storm has totally collapsed. I doubt if the storm still has hurricane status right now.

 

[Thomas Loades]

According to the NHC, Charley is still a hurricane with 85-mph sustained winds. The latest WSR image from Wilmington, NC —
[Broken External Image]:http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p20-r/SI.kltx/latest.gif
— is interesting, since the back side of the storm doesn't seem to be there, at least in terms of precip . . . it's on the satellite, but not here. Is this normal?

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Convection is the Key

To answer Thomas' question: Is this normal?

Right now, Charley has the circulation going for an 85 mph hurricane. But the missing ingredient is the convection. The storm, due to its close proximity to the Carolina coastline and a stationary frontal boundary, is not able to wrap around the former eyewall. The sea moisture was cut off by the land mass and convection was not able to continue on the W and SW quadrant of the storm. Does that make any sense?

Its basically like the inflow band to a supercell being cut off by a large land mass like the Rocky Mountains, etc. The supercell will not be able to continue its updraft convection, etc.

 

[Thomas Loades]

Yeah, that makes sense — thanks for clearing it up . . . and come to think of it, that kind of thing tends to happen to tropical cyclones here, except it's the north side that "vanishes" while the south side is over or nearing land.

 

[Thomas Loades]

This is a fantastic site (in French, but there's an English version) that has links to webcams around the U.S. and an Earthwatch map of watches and warnings — you might catch something —
http://www.natureinsolite.com/cameras.html

(I tried it with Isabel last year, missed most of the storm, but saw some of the aftermath via the cameras. There's a gallery of "best shots" on the site.)

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Aye Matey...

Glad I'm talking right this morning. Question for Thomas L. : Up here in the Northern Hemisphere, our hurricanes tends to rotate counter-clockwise. Down in the Lands Under, your cyclones (as you called them), does the cyclones rotate clockwise?? Thanks for the feedback.

 

[Thomas Loades]

They do — so calling them "cyclones" and "anticyclones" actually makes sense because they're going that way. The clouds rotate in the opposite direction, though, so cyclones appear to spin counter-clockwise.

 

[Thomas Loades]

This just in from NWS Newport, SC: a tornado warning —

* AT 1001 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH
OF INDIAN BEACH...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTIC BEACH...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
INDIAN BEACH AROUND 1025 AM EDT...
SALTER PATH AROUND 1030 AM EDT...
NEWPORT AROUND 1040 AM EDT...

 

[Thomas Loades]

And here is the webcam at Duck, NC, on the leading edge of Charley:
[Broken External Image]:http://cil-www.oce.orst.edu:8080/argus02a/latest.c5.snap.jpg
Conditions should decline over the next hour. To get more latest images as they do, the URL is http://cil-www.oce.orst.edu:8080/duck.html

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Charley still a hurricane

The latest public advisory from the TPC:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

.

Last check of NWS radar out of Wilmington, NC shows Hurricane Charley about totally "inland" with just the feeder bands still out over open seas. And it continues to make its way inland.

I would suspect that when the next TPC public advisory comes out (what time?) Charley will be downgraded to a tropical storm.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Very interesting... the coast is getting dry-slotted, but inland areas are getting hammered with torrential rain. Looks like we'll be hearing about a lot of flooding from west of Myrtle Beach SC to Kinston/Goldsboro NC. Reminds me vaguely of a similar hurricane-induced flood in this same area from a few years ago.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

Thomas Loades wrote:

This just in from NWS Newport, SC: a tornado warning —

Quote:
* AT 1001 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH
OF INDIAN BEACH...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTIC BEACH...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
INDIAN BEACH AROUND 1025 AM EDT...
SALTER PATH AROUND 1030 AM EDT...
NEWPORT AROUND 1040 AM EDT...

Good Monday to everyone!!

I was driving through Jacksonville from my parent's house when the storm that hit Indian Beach was going through Jacksonville. They repeated constantly over radio that no tornado had been spotted but that doppler indicated that a tornado was possible. Indian Beach is about 30 minutes N/NE of where I live. I thought about driving up there but I was told by a couple of friends that they closed off the outer banks, so I have no shots of Charley breezing through. We certainly didn't get what Florida got, that's for sure. Hope anybody down there is doing well.