8/12/10 FCST: ND/SD

[Andy Jackson]

Taking a look at Thursdays potential it seems like another NP day is coming.
At the 850 -

Good strong shear definitely, just the usual thermodynamic issues come chase day...

 

[Dean Baron]

Yes, it certainly does look interesting. Looks like two targets for the day. Warm front up along I94 in eastern North Dakota and a cold front sweeping through central South Dakota. Both areas look interesting and at this point I don't know which one I want to focus on. Still some time to figure it out but both areas are forecast to see good instability in the order of 3000 MLCAPE and good shear. It's going to be a tough call but looks like a couple decent plays for this setup.

 

[Rob H]

If the LCLs turn out anything like the NAM is forecasting, the Northern play might be the only chance at tornadoes. Surface low pullback in ND has been a producer this year, and the 0-1km helicity is amazing up there. I do like the splitting of the 500mb flow but I don't know how realistic that cool pocket in E SD is. The 700mb temps are fairly high in SD and the NAM doesn't show the cap eroding very well so my money is on a cap bust for any pre-frontal activity on the southern play even though I like the setup better.