8/03/04 FCST|Gulf|Hurricane Alex

[Larry J. Kosch]

Eye of Alex

I checked the NWS radar out of Wilmington, NC and you can clearly see the eye of the tropical storm clearing up on the bottom of the screen.

Also the TPC issued the following statement:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS, BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR INFORMATION. ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.

TPC also said Alex is back on its NE track as predicted.

 

[B Ozanne]

Looks to be a CAT 1 when it swipes by the Outer Banks. Damage will be minimal out there. The islands will be on the weaker side of the storm and a CAT 1 is not much stronger than a typical Nor'easter. Look for beach erosion, rip tides, and heavy rain. Heavy rain is no big deal out there because the water gets sucked up by the sand. There aren't even that many trees on the barrier islands so don't expect any of those to come down.

Keep this in mind for later in the season....the northern Atlantic (NC to Nova Scotia) is extremely warm this year. Water temps on the Jersey shore are pushing 80 and it hasn't even been that hot. Just put that in the back of your head. 80 is often the magical water temperature they talk about on tv for sustained tropical development.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

Alex is definitely taking a westward jaunt a bit. I think Pamlico sound looks on track for a direct hit, with the right front quad on Hatteras.

 

[Pat Palmer]

I'm seeing a lot of wobble in the incepient eye. The rain bands are still rotating around a nearly stationary center. It does seem to appear that the eye is begining to take shape as the rain begins to wrap around. Right now, at 9:45PM EDT, it looks like one heck of a hook echo!

In the short term, the stalled front on the eastern seaboard has failed to recurve the storm's path. The front's continual weakening and dissipation will not push the storm to the NE as fast as I originally expected, but will keep the storm offshore with the exception of OBX.

It looks like once Alex starts to move, the path will pretty much follow the Gulf Stream, allowing for further development. Anyone on the East Coast considering an offshore fishing trip should strongly reconsider.

Wax that board up there in NJ! Enjoy, and take some pix!

 

[rdale]

"Alex is definitely taking a westward jaunt a bit."

I put my cursor in the center of the eye at the start of the timelapse and I don't see anything resembling west...

- Rob

 

[Morgan Palmer]

Looks like it was a wobble I saw on the edge of the ILM range. Maybe I was hallucinating! LOL :roll:

mp

 

[mikegeukes]

Tropical Storm Alex is now a Hurricane
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/pub/a...lic_a.011.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/030830.shtml?

More information can be found on the NHC site, concerning Hurricane Alex

Hurricane Alex: Radar Image from this morning
http://mgweather.com/rad_mhx_ani.gif[

Mike

 

[Bridget Beddow]

Hurricane Alex

Good Morning!

It's all bright and wet down here in NC!!

I went down to the beach last night around 11 just to get a peak of the waves and what not.

This is my description of the coastline for those who wish to witness it first hand. I was a little hesitant at first, but I got over it after a while.

I went down to a hotel that has public access from the parking lot, even though you're not supposed to be on the beach after dark. Throughout the afternoon, I got some pic's on the beachfront, I'll have those developed once I take a few other shots to complete the roll.
It was pitchblack out on the beach last night at 11, except for the neighboring hotel that illuminated the cresting waves. They were an awesome sight, and of course made me wonder how much larger they would have been in the event that Alex made landfall or was of greater strength. There were red reflective markers up to remind people not to wonder into the ocean past those points which was little more than ankle deep. Occassional lightning in the distance over the ocean was the only thing reminding me of where the horizon was located, as dark as it was. The regular sounds of the ocean were intensified to the point that you couldn't tell which was the greater roar, the ocean or the wind howling. This made me uneasy as I would be unable to see an approaching water spout, much less hear it. At this point there was no rain where I was located (In between Indian Beach and Morehead City) The drive earlier in the afternoon was hampered by intense rainfall and alot of standing water on the road. When I went home at 11,11:30, there was barely a drop, but an approaching storm in the distance. The storm made it to my house by about 12-12:30. It had pretty intense lightning and thunder, and I fell asleep and awoke this morning (late for work) as sometime in the night we lost power. This morning's drive into work was very wet and the wind has intensified, but I did not see any small limbs on the road or anywhere else and I found no debris(other people's trash) in my yard, so the wind was probably no problem during the night.

I slept very well, though!!!!

 

[Chris Sokol]

Amazing...Alex has now reached Cat 2. Forecasters are also calling for isolated tornadoes possible along the North Carolina Coast.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

That's probably along the upper portions of the outer banks and somewhat inland.
I spoke to my ex-fiancee last night. They are on a fishing tournament in Maryland and were planning on going out today, and most likely stay in tomorrow due to the hurricane. He asked me if I wanted to go up there, I probably should have gone, I probably could have gotten some amazing pic's, but I still think they are being dangerous going out there today.
They were supposed to be going 70 miles out and they are going to have to come back at some point and I would dread to think that Alex will be up there at that time.
I can't believe it's Cat 2. The wind speed here has picked up and the rain has stopped, so it's nice and breezy outside without the sunshine.
There was a flood warning for three counties two counties north of where I am. I don't think we've really got anything more to worry about here on Camp Lejeune. There was a 2 hour delay for schools in the area but that was it, no businesses were closed, and I still haven't seen any debris. One of my 3-foot trees blew over because we just transplanted it and the spot where we put it has a tendency for water build-up - no big deal. I picked it up and leaned it in the other direction - hehe.

I kind of wish it would have come straigh inland. But since I have to be here at work today, I can't be out at the ocean so I will try to go out this afternoon and finish off the roll I started on yesterday.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

That is interesting there was that much lightning. It must of been from some outer convective cells. Typically in a hurricane, the atmospheric profile is so warm and moist, you simply don't get the ice growth required to make enough charge to cause lightning. When I was out in Isabel, I didn't see one stroke nor hear any thunder.

Aaron

 

[rdale]

I plotted lightning over satellite for the past 8 hours and there have been a handful of strikes in the NW quad, a little more in the NE, and a ton in the convection that streams from the east side down to off the FL coast.

- Rob

 

[Bridget Beddow]

I didn't see any lightning from Isabel, but Isabel passed north of me and came inland - I was mostly in the south of that one.

I was really surprised at the thunderstorms that passed over. There were alot of squalls with multiple individual cells. The most clusters of rain I counted in one spot looking out on the ocean was three. A few teenagers were out at the beach asking me if that was rain they were looking at - they had me tickled.

By 12 midnight,2 well formed squalls passed over so my house had a total of 2 thunderstorms that passed directly over, while I was awake. My roommate was also surprised when she heard the thunder. I think she's lived in this area for about 5 years and not used to thunderstorms during a hurricane.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

The Beaufort branch of the company I work for located just outside of Morehead lost power for about two hours this morning. So they either have much stronger winds just north of me in Morehead or lightning struck something that way. My guess would be the winds, which would be interesting because the winds where I am (just about 40-50 miles S/SW of Beaufort) don't seem to be that bad at all.

 

[B Ozanne]

At 11am on Monday the probabilities of this hurricane reaching 100mph were in the 10% range. Pretty impressive how this turned out.

I was watching coverage of Isabel and some storm chasers were being interviewed on the Outer Banks during the height of the storm. It was either on TWC, CNN, MSNBC, or Foxnews. They were talking about how none of the 110mph winds were reaching the ground because there was no convection advecting those winds to the surface.....any chance it was somebody in this forum?