8/03/04 FCST|Gulf|Hurricane Alex

Surface low is beginning to work its way into the core of the heaviest storms. This is a good thing. Looks like the ETA is pretty flaky with this stprm. I like the GFS solutions much better. I guess none of the models do a great job with tropical systems. Who knows, maybe this thing will bomb out overnight.
 
Looks like it'll be a good storm for east coast surfers. Once the storm encounters the cold front that's currently pushing offshore, it will take the turn towards the northeast and ride the Gulf Stream offshore. After a few days, it will become extratropical. Hatteras should still see tropical storm force winds, but I think it's alll offshore after that.

Surfers up in New Jersey and on Long Island will have a ball, the storm will be far enough offshore for the nice long rolling swells. When a storm passes too close to shore, the surf gets too sloppy.
 
Surfers up in New Jersey and on Long Island will have a ball,
Click to expand...

Good news for me. I am in Avalon, NJ on vacation. The beach here faces southeast and should pickup some of the longer period swells from this storm. Hopefully it will stay well offshore. This will keep the wind waves at bay and leave a glassy northwest flow to let the swells in.

I see the NHC has upped the probable wind speeds. The next 24 hours will be important.
 
I'm gonna come out and say it. I think there is a small window for this thing to turn into a hurricane.
 
Small chance

I agreed. As long as Alex (fomerly Fluffy) is riding on the Gulf Stream along the East Coast, it has the potential to reach hurricane status. But time and its position will be the key players in this scenario. If it stays offshore and stationary and rides the Gulf Stream, it can become a minimum hurricane..But if it gets pushed out to see by the cold front and it moves NE into cooler waters, it may never get to be a hurricane.
 
Upper level outflow is becoming very well defined - a nice arc of cirrus is fanning out to the northeast of the center. This thing has a very good chance of topping the hurricane mark.

My brother is on a coincidental mini-vacation in Holden Beach and has his camera! Although, looks like Alex might not brush land except for a few outer rain bands.
 
Maximum sustained winds right now are 60mph. The last I heard is they expect it to become a hurricane by tomorrow but that it will veer just on the outskirts of NC and head north but stay out to sea.

I did a run-down of the past 150 years of hurricanes that hit NC.

A very high percentage of the First TS of the season either hit NC, veered just off the coast, or made landfall then running over NC.

I also found that NC is overdue for a year of no storms what-so-ever.

I guess this year won't be that year.
 
The Outer Banks of North Carolina really stick out in the Atlantic and happen to fall in the path of a lot of hurricanes. The big problem is this hurricane doesn't know anything about climatology or North Carolina. It's going where the winds steer it.
 
I think that's why I enjoy living in this area;)

One of my co-workers says he used to study the weather.
I'm not sure how right he is on this because I am weather-illiterate at this point, but he said that there are two opposite wind shears blocking Alex from maintaining its regular speed. That we probably would have seen it hitting the outer banks by now(maybe) if not for the opposing winds.

I'm still learning so I don't know how accurate he is, but it sounds right, and then there's the area of high pressure that looks to head this way, which is supposed to be what pushes it off the coast?????

Is this accurate, for anybody out there that knows what they're talking about?????
 
It feels so good outside, everybody!!!!!

The last couple of days we have seen some pretty hefty humidity. I am trying to track what the humidity was but haven't found it yet. This morning was very humid, with very few clouds. As the day progressed we saw minute scattered showers with alot of spots of sunshine. Now we have a constant light rain with no spots of sunshine and the breeze feels so GOOD outside. It has cooled down alot -
It is currently 75 degrees
Within the past half-hour, the wind picked up from 7 - 10 knots and the pressure dropped from 29.92 to 29.89.

This is the kind of weather I love - open the windows, let the breeze flow through, lay down with a margarita and a good book and relax - too bad they won't let us off from work;) I hope Alex hits right over us.
 
For those in the path (or elsewhere) so interested:

Dr. Lyons on TWC now has a fun little cartoon to show what might be the expected conditions from Alex.

It kind of has a Mr. Rogers Neighborhood look to it... with houses and cars and trees blowing about. It depicts some street flooding.

It's kind of hilarious, if you want my opinion.

I wonder what the cartoon would look like during an cat 5? Would the animation show houses being blown away?

Anyway, I've been really impressed with how Alex has gotten it's act together in the last 18 hours. The Vis satellite shows some very nice storms right around the center of circ.

MP
 
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