Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target:
Waterloo, IA
Timing:
Conditional storm initiation 6 PM CDT. A bust is a possibility.
Discussion:
At 2:30 PM, an impressive OFB was located from just S the Quad Cities (DVN) west to the Linn/Johnson CO border in IA (or just S of CID), and then arcing around to the northwest to just W of ALO. The ERN portion of this boundary was essentially stationary, while the segment extending from CID to ALO has began to retreat slowly to the NE. This is the most likely place for initiation late in the day, given sufficient SFC heating. With a nose of warm air at the mid-levels, convective temperatures in ERN IA are running well into the mid-90's. Convergence should be enhanced along the boundary with the approach of a S/WV. Provided that storms can initiate, all modes of severe weather are likely given strong deep-layer shear and instability. LLVL hodograph curvatures are also enhanced along and just N of the aforementioned boundary. One or more supercells should track to the SE along the boundary in a narrow corridor of backed, moisture rich LLVL flow.
- bill
2:55 PM CDT, 7/31/08
Waterloo, IA
Timing:
Conditional storm initiation 6 PM CDT. A bust is a possibility.
Discussion:
At 2:30 PM, an impressive OFB was located from just S the Quad Cities (DVN) west to the Linn/Johnson CO border in IA (or just S of CID), and then arcing around to the northwest to just W of ALO. The ERN portion of this boundary was essentially stationary, while the segment extending from CID to ALO has began to retreat slowly to the NE. This is the most likely place for initiation late in the day, given sufficient SFC heating. With a nose of warm air at the mid-levels, convective temperatures in ERN IA are running well into the mid-90's. Convergence should be enhanced along the boundary with the approach of a S/WV. Provided that storms can initiate, all modes of severe weather are likely given strong deep-layer shear and instability. LLVL hodograph curvatures are also enhanced along and just N of the aforementioned boundary. One or more supercells should track to the SE along the boundary in a narrow corridor of backed, moisture rich LLVL flow.
- bill
2:55 PM CDT, 7/31/08
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