7/29/06 NOW: Dakotas to New England

Looks like another active day, with severe weather forecast across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes/New England. Two main areas of interest right now: Severe convection is ongoing in north central NY, where a very pretty T-warned supercell has formed at the end of a line of storms. Further west, there's a very good chance of intense and possibly tornadic supercells in ND, SD, and on into MN later this afternoon. That area is looking like a pretty decent setup to me, and I'd probably target the area around Aberdeen if I were in the area and chasing. All in all it seems worth starting a NOW thread, so here it is...

Edit: I now realize I shouldn't have mentioned the Northern Plains yet in a NOW thread, since initiation hasn't occurred there yet. But it hardly seems worth starting a whole different forecast thread, not at this stage of the game. Apologies for that, and I hope the moderators aren't too terribly upset with me. Really, it's all one big risk area anyway, technically speaking... Hmmm, guess that means this time they'll have to let me go on a technicality. ;)
 
Well I'm glad you brought up the Dakotas, Dave. Hasn't been much to really get excited about and I hope that during doldrum times the mods don't get too concerned about what goes exactly where. But the rules are good for keeping this place in line when it's crazy in April/May/June.

I'm in a funny situation. Live near Milwaukee, but am actually in Minneapolis right now for a ham radio conference. I knew about the slight risk this morning, but was busy watching presentations until about 15 mins. ago. Came back to the room, saw the mod risk upgrade about 3-3 1/2 hours west of here, and started thinking hmmmm.....

If this was tomorrow, I'd prolly be all over it. But I hate rushing and being behind and I'd want to be somewhere south of Fargo by 5-6pm. Couldn't get there until at least 7/7:30, so I'm going to cyber this one.

I hope my small sacrifice means that some folks see some good stuff today. Lord knows it's hot and humid enough. I know we have ND/SD/MN/IA chasers here, and hopefully they're already on the road with radiators that behave and plenty of cold stuff to drink along the way.


I'll be checking back here from time to time throughout the day. Good luck to anyone chasing.
 
The front is very prominent on aberdeen radar
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yeah, interesting how well the moisture convergence shows up with so little in the way of clouds.
The cu line is back in MN where the cap is weaker. itll be a close call out there, but those 80+ dewpoints in MN are certainly pretty crazy.
 
I got off work an hour ago and noticed some Cu going up to the north of my location (NE side of Twin Cities). There is obviously plenty of juice in the air but by no means is this a great setup. Taking a look at 0900 RUC UTC analysis 500mb winds are out of the NW which indicates to me a good setup for an MCS evolving during the overnight hours and spreading eastward. As it looks now most of the action should stay to the north of MSP. Latest surface obs show a stationary frontal boundary stretching more or less west to east across central Minnesota. Im not going to do any chasing tonight but if anything makes it into the cities i'll be out watching. For those looking for areas to watch the 6:33pm sfc obs show backing winds from Marshall to near Alexandria, MN. Skies look generally clear over the area except for near Barrett, MN. This would be the area I would keep an eye on for now. Hopefully I'm not giving bad advice, I've been out of action for a few months with respect to storm chasing but this is just my two cents. Good luck to all chasing, and stay cool especially with the high Td's.
 
The front is very prominent on aberdeen radar
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Very prominent doesn't even do it justice, that boundary is just amazingly radar reflective for some reason, portions of it were showing returns in the 35+ dbz range. But I'm starting to have a bad feeling about the overall severe threat - I fear we may be seeing a repeat of the 7/19 Iowa mod-risk cap bust fiasco, with index numbers off the charts but no convection. Satellite images appear to show the Cu fields in the really good air are now shrinking and fading, just as they did on the 19th. There's some decent convergence in the area, combined with that incredible boundary you would think it would be enough for something to fire... But it hasn't happened yet, and darkness is fast approaching. I dunno, I think maybe the upgrade to Moderate Risk might have jinxed the whole setup. <_<
 
Very prominent doesn't even do it justice, that boundary is just amazingly radar reflective for some reason, portions of it were showing returns in the 35+ dbz range. But I'm starting to have a bad feeling about the overall severe threat - I fear we may be seeing a repeat of the 7/19 Iowa mod-risk cap bust fiasco, with index numbers off the charts but no convection. Satellite images appear to show the Cu fields in the really good air are now shrinking and fading, just as they did on the 19th. There's some decent convergence in the area, combined with that incredible boundary you would think it would be enough for something to fire... But it hasn't happened yet, and darkness is fast approaching. I dunno, I think maybe the upgrade to Moderate Risk might have jinxed the whole setup. <_<
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LOL, pretty much. At 3pm everything looked ready to go with increasing moisture convergence, a building field of good vertical cumulus and continued heating. Then the subsidence really came in and wiped out the entire CU field. There isn't much anywhere around here except ice clouds. Still, there is a focus mechanism in the LLJ which should crank up further and intersect the front. There is still an impressive amount of instability forecast (for night) well into the overnight hours and effective shear should still be supportive of some possible nocturnal supercells, before evolving into an MCS. Will see, there is supposedly little cap right now with good moisture convergence and an already decent LLJ and yet we really don't even have Cu.
 
Unfortunately, I think everybody I know sitting in Wahpeton may have a problem... This says it all(MCD 1669):

TAMDAR SOUNDINGS /FROM THE WATERTOWN SD
VICINITY/ APPEAR TO DEPICT A DEGREE OR TWO OF MID LEVEL WARMING
SINCE MID AFTERNOON.

-John
 
Since there was discussion of tornadoes in Upstate NY this afternoon, I thought I would mention that significant structural damage was reported in both Utica, NY and Syracuse, NY today...both with Tornado warned storms. A check of some video that was posted on the www.wktv.com website clearly shows a large funnel cloud 3/4's of the way down to the ground in Utica. This supports the ground reports of structural damage to building in Utica itself. Another busy day in New York.
 
Regarding the Dakotas Severe weather setup (which is incredible)...it looks like this is going to be a bust. Plenty of CINH all over the Dakotas!! Further, the latest RUC model run (which has been awesome at convection placement and occurrence here in the Northeast for weeks), has absolutely zero precip. in the Dakotas for the next 6-9 hours. In fact, the only MCS activity it indicates is over the Northern half of MN and into WI. If something goes...I'd be surprised but watching with interested eyes since there is so many great parameters in place!!
 
Regarding the Dakotas Severe weather setup (which is incredible)...it looks like this is going to be a bust. Plenty of CINH all over the Dakotas!! Further, the latest RUC model run (which has been awesome at convection placement and occurrence here in the Northeast for weeks), has absolutely zero precip. in the Dakotas for the next 6-9 hours. In fact, the only MCS activity it indicates is over the Northern half of MN and into WI. If something goes...I'd be surprised but watching with interested eyes since there is so many great parameters in place!!
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Yep, fellow Albany alum, the fat lady has sungeth. Barring an incredible miracle, add this one to the other great 2006 busts.
 
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