7/21/05 TALK: WI/IL

[J West]

I thought I'd start a TALK for today, since no one else did 8)

Woke up to a tropical 73/72 and fog so thick I couldn't see the driveway 15 feet below me from the window. I just now fired up the computer to see the IA/MN MCS knocking on the western CWA's door with SPC and the local guys at ARX/MKX noting it may gain strength as it moves east....rarely does this happen.

Look like the main MCS is finally dying, but there is plenty of new convection out in front of it, which is parallel to I-39/90/94 from north of Tomah to well south of Rockford. Initally, it looked like the southern cells may remain discrete, but it looks as if a new squall line is forming. There is a boundary along the WI/IL line that appears to be the new forcing mechanism to tap the tropical air mass over S WI and N IL.

Looks good for a wind event, which I'll take at this point.

Stay tuned later in the day for new development in the IL/IN/Lower MI if this MCS doesn't hose it up.

 

[J West]

I don't think I've ever seen this line from MKX before:

AS THE LINE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IT WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER
INSTABILITY AND MAY INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

Usually it's the exact opposite...

I'm going to head out and eat this line head-on...hopefully get wind out of it, as I'm not too picky right now.

 

[Robert Dewey]

This thread probably should include MI as well, as the line moves eastward. There are two scenarios - The NGM shows it taking a sharp turn to the southeast, while the NAM continues an eastwared track.

11AM DTX AFD:

IF...AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT IT IS
GOING TO HIT US THEN FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE ISSUED
IMMEDIATELY...BECAUSE NOT ONLY WILL WE BE LOOKING AT A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SCENARIO...WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

Don't know if I'd go THAT extreme... But still, it's interesting.

 

[Edward Ballou]

Sounds and looks like the tune is changing for SD. Current models put a cap over FSD but 1K lcl levels. I'd say the place to be is Sioux Falls and watch how things play out. It's a pretty narrow window tonight, if anything, you can enjoy the South Dakota mosquitos.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

That line this morning brought the strongest winds I've seen in a long time-40/45 mph (trees thrashing around hard but no damage) and a good drenching which we really needed. Now if the clouds would clear we could see another round of intense storms.