Dean Baron
Supporter
Not a great setup tomorrow by any means but one I am willing to check out. Only a see text by the SPC, but I'm willing to bet they're will a slight risk in the morning SWODY1. A quick glance doesn't look good, as surface winds are out of the SW in the vicinity of a weak boundary, but looking at upper winds show that this is a NW flow event, so surface winds out of the SW will do just fine. A typical high cape/low shear summer setup. Good thing is H7 temps are forecast to be well below 12C, but looking at forecast soundings there is a stable layer just above the surface across western IA between 18z and 0z (it's probably there longer, but I've only looked at soundings between 18-0z for tomorrow). Even with the relatively cool H7 temps I'm worried that weak convergence could be a problem in getting storms to go. If a storm can get going it should stay isolated and be able to feed off the strong instability forecast to be in place tomorrow (MLCAPE around 3000). Helicities aren't great, but seem to be best across northwest Iowa. Forecast soundings show best VWP in northwest IA although hodographs aren't great. Regardless, I'll be out because it will be worth it if storms can go, even if the tornado potential isn't huge. Target is Early, IA.
EDIT: After looking more at models, I'm shifting my target north to Spencer, IA. I'm actual rather excited about tomorrow. Decent shear with a nice nose of strong instability in this area at 21z.
EDIT: After looking more at models, I'm shifting my target north to Spencer, IA. I'm actual rather excited about tomorrow. Decent shear with a nice nose of strong instability in this area at 21z.
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