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7/14/06 FCST: WI / IL / MI / IN / OH

High instability with low shear today across this region. Same basic setup as yesterday, which produced a pretty massive MCS. Looks like things are already beginning to develop along the outflow in NE IL, NW IN, and SW MI. Storms look like they are already taking on a bow echo shape, but I don't think it has anything to do with strong outflow winds.

It will be interesting to see if that convection can strengthen, and whether or not good instability can advect into the area fast enough. The 06Z NAM picks this action up quite well, and blows it up across MI later today.