• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

7/13/06 NOW: NE / SD / ND

Joined
Feb 8, 2004
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Location
Detroit, MI
I'd think the activity north of OAX could become surface-based as it pushes further east into lower CINH (for a surface-based parcel). RUC mesoanalysis shows 0-6km shear has increased +10kts in the past hour in some spots in response to the approaching shortwave perturbation aloft at 500mb (evident in moisture channel imagery) which is increasing the midlevel kinematic profiles. I wouldn't be surprised to see the MDT risk verify based on hail reports given the extreme > 4000j/kg MLCAPE and low wet-bulb zero levels across much of the area. WRF showed a large-scale convective line stretching from the Dakotas southward into the MDT risk zone on last night's run -- which is likely given the degree of capping and deep shear. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant wind/hail reports, especially with any embedded supercells or bow echo structures in the line (or ahead of the line). I'm glad to see the >70 tds have held despite the strong insolation / sfc diabatic heating (which has weakened CINH while incresing CAPE and still maintaining relatively-low LCLs). I'm thinking that large hail and damaging winds would be the biggest threats given the weak low-level shear.
 
Damaging winds is right...check out the lowest tilt velocity from OAX. Looks like theres a hint of an inflow notch on that HP beast too, and I agree it has probably become surface based.
 
That's an impressive (though relatively-small) bow echo complex just west of OAX. Widespread area of greater than 71kt wind on the lowest base velocity tilt (the center of the beam is about 600m AGL). It looks like the leading edge of the outflow (i.e. the OFB) is beginning to surge out ahead of the convection a little, so the maximum winds may decrease a little in time (at least temporarily). Very high CAPE characterizes much of the area, which is certainly help drive this storm complex. There have been a couple rotational couplets visible from time to time as well. It looks like the strongest winds (like near or a little above 80mph IMO) is occurring right along Hwy 30 about 10 miles WNW of Cedar Bluffs. This, not coincidentally, it also where the gap between the leading edge of the outflow and the leading edge of the convective precip is the most narrow (in this case, there is no gap).

EDIt: Latest BV1 imagery indicating that the highest winds remain about 6 miles behind the leading OFB. This storm complex is moving rather quickly to the ESE, so Omaha will be at risk in about 50-60 minutes.
 
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