7/12/07 FCST: KS/NE/OK

[Mike Hollingshead]

Looks like maybe some potential for interesting storms tomorrow in southern Nebraska or northern Kansas. NAM is a bit further north with the extent of the deeper moisture, with GFS not that far south of it. The eastern area of this moisture will be more and more under better flow aloft.

NAM fcst Sounding for Kearney at 0z

That's all I need to see to feel there's some hope tomorrow. Lots of cape, mid-level winds wanting to push the storms more southerly while the anvil level winds back a bit more to the northwest, hopefully helping vent them better, away from their inflow as much as possible. Weak low levels may not be a true killer with the 60+ knots of sr anvil level winds(venting them east while they move south) and large cape(0-3km cape of 380 on Kearney's forecast sounding).

Target: York Nebraska

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I don't know, seems to me like extreme NW OK, SW KS, and the OK/TX panhandle area is going to be the place to be mid-late afternoon. Convection will probably occur early in northern KS/southern NE from late morning to early afternoon, then shifting south into the target area where supercells appear quite possible at least early on until evolving into an mcs. Directional shear appears rather nice here (although somewhat weak) with winds backed to the SE at the surface. Dewpoints in the lower 70s. CAPE well over 4000. SPC day 1 outlook also shows this with a 5% tornado prob outlining NW OK/SW KS and the northern TX/OK panhandles. I'm finding the Woodward sounding a bit interesting myself:
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_overlays.cgi?fcsthr=024&STATIONID=KWWR

EDIT: SPC has shifted everything well to the NNW from where they originally had it......ENE CO and W KS mainly.

 

[Jason Bolt]

It's interesting to scan the Hazardous Weather Outlooks put out this morning as see how widely differing opinions are on today's event. OUN and PUB both mention tornadoes, even though they are far removed from the hatched 5%. GLD mentions only the possibility of large hail and for the northern counties of DDC they simply say "today's storms will probably not be severe". One or two of those counties are in a hatched 30% for wind/hail and a 5% tornado. Huh? I'm new at forecasting so I will guesstimate my forecast and then usually read the AFDs and see what they think. The downplay forecast from DDC has me confused.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I'm suprised nobody is talking about the potential for a couple tornadoes today in the Oklahoma panhandle. I think the area around Beaver Oklahoma looks pretty nice for a tornado or two given the fact that it's July. I'm not a big fan of NW flow setups, but today would be one of the better ones I've seen this year so far (NW flow setups that is). I am contemplating heading out. I haven't done any forecasting up until about 10 minutes ago so I am hesitant to pull the trigger, but I have a feeling I am going to regret not going if I stay home. I definitely see the potential for a couple weak tornadoes in the Ashland KS - Beaver OK area this afternoon and evening.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

Ehhh, sure looks like a good setup here for July...I've decided to sit this one out however. Initially I was thinking about heading toward Laverne, OK. It's way too late for me to make it up there now, I was just too doubtful this morning during decision time. I'll probably end up regretting it too.

 

[Jonathan Behle]

I'm not going today but a couple of my friends are, we all collaberated and agreed for them to set up shop in the Hays Kansas area and points west.. Then hopefully they can catch something as we get something pronounced and everything goes southeasterly. This time of year is quite tough to predict, but the strongest storms this time of year can be quite incredible

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I posted a brief forecast and target here...
http://www.loadedgunchasing.com/forecast.html
Basically I would target Ashland, KS to Beaver, OK. I would definitely chase today if I could. I think a weak tornado or two are a decent possibility in the Beaver to Dodge City area.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

I posted a brief forecast and target here...
http://www.loadedgunchasing.com/forecast.html
Basically I would target Ashland, KS to Beaver, OK. I would definitely chase today if I could. I think a weak tornado or two are a decent possibility in the Beaver to Dodge City area.

Yeah, that looks about right. It appears that a couple of brief weak tornadoes will be possible in this area.