7/10/09 FCST: KS/MO/IA/IL

[Brian Stertz]

Friday would be a heck of a day for a "SVR parameter chase", but looks like the sizzlin' cap may have other ideas. KC Metro is smack dab in the middle of pretty major bullseye of EHI's 7+ on MesoNam from afternoon into the evening. I will be on standby in the event something rogue erupts on the boundary. Not too likely but ya just never know this quirky year.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

NE-CO/SW-NE

The 12Z WRF has 70 DP in Far NW KS with 65 DP across most of NE/CO on Friday with some big storms.

The 700MB cap around 12C-15C will be tough.

Saturday looks like NE could have some nice storms on the WF with 40Knt's WNW flow.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

SPC has hatched S WI/N IL, not sure why. Instability looks moderate (GFS looks great on dewpoint and LI but ETA has only 1000-1500 j/kg progged over the area) and winds look fair at best. Looks like yet another '09 "not quite there" setup to me attm.

 

[Bob Hartig]

It's certainly borderline, but enough so to get my hopes up, particularly since the SPC has hatched it in. NAM-WRF model sounding for 00Z near Kankakee shows good veering with height from a slightly backed surface wind. Over 2,000 SBCAPE is sufficient fuel for severe storms, and 40 kt bulk shear is plenty 'nuff to support supercells. Toss in decent 500 mb and 850 mb winds and I think Illinois stands a good chance of seeing some action Friday. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping future runs will paint an increasingly robust scenario.

 

[Taylor Pechacek]

Chasers in Srn WI and Nrn IL:

Chasers in Srn WI and Nrn IL:

If you are in this area, the corridor between Milwaukee and Chicago, and are on any severe weather, I would love to hear about it. 95.1FM and 1050AM will have severe weather coverage for McHenry, Lake (IL), Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth counties, if needed, Friday. Please feel free to contact me via email, phone or pm here if you have anything noteworthy or are chasing in the area. I would personally like to chat with you if you are. Obviously, our number one priority is safety for our listeners, so that is always what goes on-air first. I'm not sure if this is the right forum to suggest this, but it relates to the upcoming storm event.

Otherwise, my hope is that the morning storms don't limit isolation so that storms encounter a heavily mixed environment. This happens from time to time around here. From what I'm gathering, we will see some significant severe weather someplace close to the WI/IL border. Timing on this should be right, as well, so that is a plus for daytime chases. Good shear, adequate helicity and CAPE should be in place for tonadic storms early on. So, hopefully the atmosphere in the area can recover enough.

Taylor Pechacek
taylor_pechacek@yahoo
262-515-6874
WIIL / WLIP
KB9NYJ

 

[Nathan Truninger]

Will all depend on if the "crapvection" and morning MCS can get out of the area in time. Pretty typical Illinois "hope that the crapvection leaves in time" day for tomorrow.

 

[Danny Neal]

Happy Birthday to me..... Happy Birthday to me.... Happy biiiiirthday Dear Danny.... Happy Birthday to me!

Tomorrow could net my first birthday tornado in my own neck of the woods! I am not counting on there being a lot of tornadic activity but I do locally look for a couple of storms with that potential along and south of the I 80 corridor in IL tomorrow. 3000+ CAPE per the GFS with good moisture return by 7 PM could yield the potential for a couple supercells to develop before the front ignites an upscale MCS where I can see wind damaging potentially developing into the Chicago area and more so in N IN and S MI overnight.

 

[Benjamin Rock]

Happy B-Day Danny!! I hope the NAM and GFS line up. I'm not particularly impressed with this set up, but a backyard chase is a backyard chase!

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Yowsers, using the GFS 36 hours out is a long shot, it's not exactly a great model for resolving the types of features we're looking for this close to a chase day. Higher resolution models (NAM and 4km WRF) show ongoing convection rampant across most of IL north of I-70 through at least 21z significantly diluting the sfc flow and mitigating any chances for vigorous convection in IL. Looks like the best play in regard to best instability and upper level support in the Southeast quad of Iowa. Unfortunately, both models show the area still under the influence of subsidence in the wake of the Illinois MCS through 00z.

IMO, tomorrow doesn't look very good anywhere at this point. Hopefully this mornings 12z scenarios are out the window tomorrow and the MCS is long gone by mid-afternoon.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'd love to see what is the SPC saw that warranted a 30% hatched on both Day 2 outlooks. I've certainly been proven wrong before, but other than the early rounds of storms I see no indication at all of afternoon or evening redevelopment. The NAM, as Scott said has precip lingering around much too long, which even if the sun pokes through late in the day, would likely lead to a subsidence caused blue sky bust. MCS situations are hard to forecast in advance, but I'm pretty surprised at the confidence the SPC has shown thus far.

As it stands right now, things are pointing towards a stormy first half of the day, followed by a pretty quiet evening.

Current 5km WRF Cape Forecast

 

[Joe beier]

I'm hoping but not expecting ... if that makes any sense. Like said 10940 other times ... things just aren't set up right. Oh well we'll see.

 

[Adam Lucio]

This is one of those setups where forecasting based off models is a waste. Its all going to come down to ones ability to read and monitor the live conditions.

Big differences in the GFS and NAM at this point. The NAM is just god awful with its simulated reflectivity. The 4km wrf however doesn't line up with it at all. Given said nasty precip on NAM its almost non existent with the CAPE.

GFS though, in closer line with the 4km doesnt have much precip here and is much better looking with the CAPE. Best hodos I see are actually out of Chicago and in the SE IA area.

There are just way too many contradictions...Im glad I dont have to commit to this one yet...I am going to wait to see what the RUC says and what this forecasted MCS does...right now all radars are quiet in that region, hopefully a chase ruining cluster wont go up once the cap cools out there because that could be the first sign of game over tomorrow.

 

[Taylor Pechacek]

Seems COD's WRF model run shows some good cape in the Midwest, especially at 30hrs/18z fri timeframe. This is also a good area for helicity at 100 - 150 m2/s2 (1km) and 250 - 300 up to 3km. I think if, as previously mentioned, the mcs is not maintained through morning and isolation can be maximized, the SPC guidance will be relevant. Some of the NWS discussions (see ARX and MKX) are on track with a lack of daytime/diurnal heating and thus laxed svr pot. ORD mentions tornado threat.

We all know the toughness of predicting mcs development and maintenance. I'd look at the status of the mcs in the early morning and its trends. I remember many times these can just almost evaporate during the waning hours of morning when the atmosphere is most stable. Even if some cloud debris is present, the thinning nature of the clouds should let a good deal of sunshine in. Still an interesting set-up if things come together.

 

[Melissa Jablonski]

Happy Birthday to me..... Happy Birthday to me.... Happy biiiiirthday Dear Danny.... Happy Birthday to me!

Tomorrow could net my first birthday tornado in my own neck of the woods! I am not counting on there being a lot of tornadic activity but I do locally look for a couple of storms with that potential along and south of the I 80 corridor in IL tomorrow. 3000+ CAPE per the GFS with good moisture return by 7 PM could yield the potential for a couple supercells to develop before the front ignites an upscale MCS where I can see wind damaging potentially developing into the Chicago area and more so in N IN and S MI overnight.

Happy Birthday Danny. I'm with you. I'm looking for that upscale MCS and resulting damaging wind event In my neck of the woods; Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan.
Melissa

 

[Danny Neal]

I know looking at the GFS that far ahead is a stretch, but after all I do model run to model run forecasting and that particular run looked pretty decent. Of course all that matters on game day is live conditions and surface features! The 4 KM and GFS were kinda in agreement with the lack of significant precip.... As it is turning out though, storms are currently firing in NW IA so...... It is up in the air. I'd love a birthday chase though!