7/1/06 FCST: WI / MI

[Robert Dewey]

Things still look on track. I agree with Alex that it's very confusing, there isn't anything clear-cut in this situation. Will tonights potential MCS die out? If not, what's the exact path and where will any outflows / MCV setup? Will the CAP be too strong?

FSL RUC definitely initiates convection, not sure whether that convection initiates based on the stuff which is currently ongoing across ND/SD/MN (which looks like it's intensifying and becoming more linear).

 

[Jason McIntosh]

Before you blow the horn and make fun of my outlooks, try to see the potential in it. Remember as much as you think the "glass is half empty" some of us believe it to be "half full".

Discuss away.
[/b]

Hey, i like the dramatization. SPC would love a guy like you.

For me the numbers don't matter today. I think the instability around 3,000 j/kg and a cold front moving through at peak heating will be the trigger. Tornadoes have already happened with much less parameters of instability and shear in WI this year. The timing is crucial in this possible severe wx outbreak if it happens. I like the 5% tornado outlook on SPC latest Day 1. Remember that Aug 18, 2005 had a slight risk.
I agree that this is a different senario than last year; but we never know what will happen until it passes.

I like the instability.
I like the available moisture and low LFC/LCL heights.
I like the shear(not great, but seficient).
I like the setup.

Numbers or no numbers; lets be ready to watch what happens.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Well I like what I see so far today.. SPC being conservative... (that's good for WI tornadoes, isn't it)... who wants to team up for a WI chase this afternoon?

 

[Stan Rose]

Well I like what I see so far today.. SPC being conservative... (that's good for WI tornadoes, isn't it)... who wants to team up for a WI chase this afternoon?
[/b]

SPC played it conservative on 6/16.

 

[rdale]

I don't understand the 6/16 connection - there was no severe weather forecast or occuring in or near the area that day...

Anyways I'm liking the early start over WI already - although it was VERY hard to do my weathercasts this morning with every model we use showing nada precip and I'm talking about the potential for a significant sevwx event!

 

[rdale]

My 06Z 2km WRF running over southern lower MI has a B E A U T I F U L sounding all afternoon long, with SRH 250-300 and most of it 0-1km, but initiates nothing until a brief shower near LAN at 02Z and more action near MBS after 03Z.

 

[rdale]

Don't put me in that bank - and looking over other posts I don't see that either. I think this is CLEARLY a conditional event.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

LOL :lol: Ok so someone explain this. Look at the 12z GFS run. Now 18-00Z it develops light precip along the front. 00-06Z it explodes a huge bullseye from E IA into S WI and N IL. Then from 06-12Z it's dry? What the heck is going on!!!??? (pulls out hair) :blink:
[/b]

Not going to worry about what it means or where it came from/is it really there or anything like that....but there is a small 500 mb vort max (a fairly strong one at that) that spins through the N IA/N IL/S WI area in the GFS and that's what causes the bull's eye of precip. Very strong 700 mb VVs, so I guess the model is just responding to it. Looks like at 12Z it is supposed to be over the WY/NE state line.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Things seem to be coming together somewhat. Watching a few echos entering lower Michigan. I might attempt a rare Michigan chase ironically in the Mt. Pleasant area.(or position West of that point..and chase back towards town.) I note the expected storm speed of 40+ mph to the East which doesn't sound like much fun. Will sit tight at least a couple more hours in the Lansing area.

 

[rdale]

Incredible wind structure on the TAMDAR soundings out of Muskegon - ugly cap though... 50kts with good directional shear all the way up...

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Scanned over latest models...

Conditions at 00Z tonight:

CAPE: 2500-3000 j/kg (highest over southern WI)
Helicity (0-3km): 100-400 m2/s2 (highest over lower MI)
CIN: Erodes rapidly over southern WI, eastern lower MI ... SW lower MI stays capped
LI: Highest is -7.9 over southern WI
LCL's: Under 1000m over WI
EHI: 2.5-3.0 over southern WI

Folks.. today is going to happen as I planned. Parameters are coming into play, GFS now develops precip over WI by 00z. Lets cross our fingers.

 

[rdale]

1930Z TAMDAR soundings out of southwest Michigan showing MUCH drier air in the 800-725mb slice than any model forecast... New NAM still has notable cap (wasting some wonderful winds) over LAN at 00Z, 2C 850mb cap at MSN & MKE too.

GRB free and clear to access it's 2808CAPE but winds there much more line than sup.