6/6/2006 NOW: IA/IL/WI/MO

[MatthewCarman]

I went for a bikeride and saw 2 nice cumulonimbus towers up and they looked pretty inpresive and one had a flat top. The other formed a nice flat top like a anvil and I just knew they had to be severe. Come home and they are TOR warned in eastern IA with a SVR watch up for parts of east IA and west IL. (Plus 2 counties in northeast MO) Dolplar Radar is indicating tornadoes with these storms.

 

[David Draun]

According to the Quad Cities Doppler SRM, there were two very weak velocity couplets on those two cells. I don't see them anymore on the most recent scan. They seem to be going linear right away with backbuilding evident on the southernmost storm. I see the tornado threat very limited today, with a tail-end storm having the most potential to produce.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Iowa city which was hit by a strong tornado ealier this year is close to the tornadic storms so hopefully the storms with stay just northeast/east of the city.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO NEAR NORTH
LIBERTY...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF IOWA CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST NORTHEAST OF TIFFIN AT 322 PM. A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN WAS REPORTED EARLIER JUST SOUTH OF OXFORD.

Stroms are moving east/southeast towards the IL boader. these storms went TOR warned fast and I was suprised. Yeah I see what you are saying david. The chances for tornadoes does appear low at this time.

 

[Kathryn Piotrowski]

Storm with strong hook on radar moving into Iowa City at 3:44 PM. Waiting on reports from the Iowa City!!!!

Jeff Piotrowski

 

[MatthewCarman]

Storm with strong hook on radar moving into Iowa City at 3:44 PM. Waiting on reports from the Iowa City!!!!

Jeff Piotrowski
[/b]

Yeah I am waiting to see if there is any reports of tornadoes from the Iowa city area. Is anyone chasing these storms?

EDIT: A whole line of severe storms has formed and moving east. Radar showing 3 storms Tornado warned. Mabey the conditions are better for tornadoes then we thought?

 

[MatthewCarman]

Wow the tornado threat still continues and all of this occuring on a low risk day. Conditions seem better then we thought and several tornadoes has already been spotted on the ground today. Cant wait to see some pictures of these storms from anyone who chased them.

 

[MatthewCarman]

New TOR warned storm:

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN DAVIS COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

Baseball size hail is also possible with this storm. The storm is moving to the southeast at 15 mph. I think we might have a small tornado outbreak on our hands today if we continue to get rotation in these storms. They are firing up east of the cold front in warm unstable air. Wish I was chasing today but didnt expect much today.

 

[MatthewCarman]

There are now several storms in WI that are capable of producing tornadoes. There could already be some tornadoes on the ground. For a 2% chance from the SPC and no tornado watch you would not expect much in the way of tornadic storms but weather is being unpredictable today.

 

[beaudodson]

Several tornadoes reported in Wisconsin - reports of damage. No watch or mesoscale discussion. Strange.

- 200-250 m2/s2 0-3 km helicity on the SPC meso page for southern Wisconsin and nw Illinois. SB Cape of 2000+ The atmosphere had plenty of time to recover today. Impressive right moving supercells are crossing the state. Reminds me of several outbreaks over the past few years in that state.

Looks like severe threat will continue for the next couple of hours. Wonder why SPC has been silent on this.


--update appears SPC has now issued a watch.

 

[David Draun]

An impressive arc of discrete supercells moving SE through SW Wisconsin. Persistent tornado warnings on these! Strong looking shear couplets are evident on many of the cells This event is starting to remind me of May 30th, 2003. That day also featured a low tornado risk, and the storms fired along a cold front. On that day, sfc temps were not too hot, with readings in the mid 70s to around 80. We will see how long these cells hold together as night approaches.

As I type this, a big'ol cumulonimbus has just went up about 15 miles NW of me. It could be an active night for the Chicago Metro.

 

[nickgrillo]

LOL Oye... Nice to see all of these strong tornadic supercells one state west of me. I didn't think much of today at all... However, today appears to have one thing that most days in the past 4-6 weeks didn't have -- low LCLs (with favorable mean BL RH values and low Td deficits invof supercells). Latest RUC mesoanalysis paints a quite favorable environment, with 1000-1500j/kg mlCAPE across the area, with 35-40kts 0-6km shear across central and southern WI. Despite deep-layered unidirectional flow -- there is a nice veering profile in the boundary layer (which can be seen on RUC soundings across the region) which is yielding ~100-150 m2/s2 0-1km SRH near the supercells (with the KMSN RUC sounding for 00z showing ~140 m2/s2 SRH accumulating in the lowest 1km).

Since the dewpoints in central and southern WI are generally >64F and the temperatures are only in the low-mid 70s -- the LCLs across the region are particularly low -- i.e. 600-1000m AGL (per RUC analysis), Man, oh man...

 

[David Draun]

These storms could be the stuff of chaser's dreams. They are not moving very fast. Apparently the tornadoes are quite visible, and they are not gorilla hail producers. Unless you're a chaser who likes big hail, chasing these storms would not disappoint you.

The latest radar scans are showing some decrease in intensity. The threat may be ending soon. The storms that tried to develop here have quickly lost intensity.

 

[David Draun]

Well they are gone. I walked away from my computer for just a few minutes and the supercells have completely dissipated. The latest MD from SPC indicates a likely end to the tornado watch. I don't think there will be too many storms overnight either.

 

[rdale]

I think we'll still have plenty of lightning overnight in the Great Lakes - but not severe...