6/6/06 FCST: NM / CO / OK / AR / MO / IL / WI

[Eric Flescher]

Wonder what the possibilities are for storms today after the heavy thunderstorms in Kansas City yesterday.

 

[David Draun]

With all the cloud cover resulting from the MCS's over IA/IL/WI, I don't see the atmosphere recovering until late in the day. I was going to head out for a local chase today, but I'll save the gas. If the clouds can disperse, the area near the Quad Cities could be a nice target. There won't be much of a cap, so things could initiate in a hurry and evolve into a gusty squall line rather quickly. There is always hope for a tail end-charlie to perhaps produce a tornado. With low dewpoint depressions, it's not out of the question. However at this time. SPC mesoanalysis doesn't show very strong perameters in the area. It is still early though. Heating could definitely be an issue today

 

[Tony Laubach]

Guess I'll give Colorado a plug for the day..

A classic post-frontal setup in the works for today as upslope flow against the Front Range will help fuel convection which will move off the mountains and onto the adjacent Plains.

SE flow may aid in the development of a Denver Cyclone, which will enhance convergence and give the DCVZ a good play with non-supercell tornadoes a distinct possibility. This target line usually lies along and just east of E-470, so Denver chasers will typically plant themselves along there.

Further south along the Palmer Divide and points beyond, the post-frontal setup should yeild decent storm chances. Good moisture will ride the SE winds and give plenty of fuel to the storms. High temps will keep LCLs very high which will limit overall tornatic threat for any supercells which do develop, but I would bet you'll see several tornado-warned storms up along the Front Range from Ft. Collins southward to Trinidad today.

Landspouts will be your best bet for tornatic action today, so stat padders everywhere saddle up. Accumulating hail may also occur and would imagine the ice will be today's biggest threat. Maybe upwards of 1.5 inches in stronger updrafts. Storms should move enough to minimize flooding concerns, but urban areas still may see minor flooding of underpasses and such.

I'll head out of town early to avoid the imminent traffic issues and may elect to pass on any metro-area storms and wait for them to come to me as once you're in the city, traffic will ensure you're stuck there.

 

[Rich Dorfman]

The thing I would like to point out is that it seems that a lot of our more severe events as of late here in WI follow morning convection and tend to be forecast with much skepticism through the early afternoon.
[/b]

Seems very similar to the setup we had a couple weeks ago on May 24. The difference is I don't think we'll warm up as much today. If the sun comes out and warms us to 75+ then my target is Mineral Point area just west of Madison.

 

[Stan Rose]

Guess I'll give Colorado a plug for the day..

A classic post-frontal setup in the works for today as upslope flow against the Front Range will help fuel convection which will move off the mountains and onto the adjacent Plains.

SE flow may aid in the development of a Denver Cyclone, which will enhance convergence and give the DCVZ a good play with non-supercell tornadoes a distinct possibility. This target line usually lies along and just east of E-470, so Denver chasers will typically plant themselves along there.

Further south along the Palmer Divide and points beyond, the post-frontal setup should yeild decent storm chances. Good moisture will ride the SE winds and give plenty of fuel to the storms. High temps will keep LCLs very high which will limit overall tornatic threat for any supercells which do develop, but I would bet you'll see several tornado-warned storms up along the Front Range from Ft. Collins southward to Trinidad today.
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Appreciate the optimism, but right now the dying towers look more sad than a sad monsoonal day--they
looked better at 16z than they do now. not much to do when the stearing flow is zippo. hopefully things will pick up again toward sunset.

 

[Tony Laubach]

We're going to move forward with our plans for this afternoon's gentlemen's chase east of town. Visible sat showing a persistant line of cu developing roughly along Hwy 24 from Colorado Springs to Limon. Several of us are heading out to meet east of town at 3pm where we'll pile into my van and probably head down someplace south and east of Denver. I don't think any of us are expecting much if anything today, but you can't turn down a setup so close to home. We'll be out just long enough at the least to avoid rush hour traffic and hopefully will get on at least one storm which survives its trip off the foothills.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

There's a solid storm west of Colorado Springs currently but it's just parked. There is big cumulus to the south/south east of the Springs that looks like it's getting ready to go. I've been watching the sky all afternoon. Everything along the Palmer divide is dying it seems but stuff is kinda backbuilding into the storm west of the Springs. Tony, I think you'll have to come south if you want to get on a storm today!