6/27/2010 NOW: MI

[John Vandehei]

I honestly think this setup is better than 6/23 (for MI)... which was a laughable MDT risk for areas north of Ann Arbor. Temps right behind the warm front are already in the mid 80's, with Tds in the low 70's... providing sfc-based CAPE of 3500j/kg. This is combined with effective shear on the order of 55-60knts, which should continue the development of thunderstorms across northern IN and southern MI.

I do hope you're right. I did notice that some storms are quickly developing in Calhoun County along that outflow boundary that's running along and just south of I-94. Unfortunately for me, I'm stuck at home watching the kids. Thus, for me to chase, something good is going to have to almost come right to me.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I do hope you're right. I did notice that some storms are quickly developing in Calhoun County along that outflow boundary that's running along and just south of I-94. Unfortunately for me, I'm stuck at home watching the kids. Thus, for me to chase, something good is going to have to almost come right to me.

Looks like that line is falling apart... might have something to do with the higher CIN over eastern MI at the moment, but I'm not really sure. Temps have bumped up into the low 80's here, so any cap should start to erode quickly. The cell on the northern end of that line appears to have taken on supercellular characteristics, and has a TOR warning associated with it.

EDIT: TOR warning out Washtenaw county in SE MI. That's probably the smallest TOR warned cell I've ever seen around here...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Very nice hook echo near DTW TDWR.

 

[nickgrillo]

No doubt that was a pretty decent storm that produced a tornado near Carleton... RUC mesoanalysis showed >200m2/s2 of 0-1km AGL SRH within the inflow sector at the time of tornadogenesis. In fact, it is still retaining a rather defined supercellular structure over Ontario, which isn't surprising given the intense deep-layer shear invof the warm front. I'm thinking the activity developing to the west is rooted above the boundary layer given the CINH (for a surface-based or mixed-layer parcel ascent) which developed in wake of the previous activity -- but still wouldn't be surprised to see some marginally severe hail from the elevated convection near the IN/MI border region.