Bill Schintler
EF4
Chasing Target for Tuesday, June 16
Chase target:
35 miles south of Garden City, KS.
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated high-based supercell storms will form after 8 PM CDT. Large hail and severe wind will be the primary severe risks. Photogenic LP storms will be possible given the relative isolated nature of the convection.
Discussion (OK, KS):
Today’s widespread convection has made a mess out of the surface map with boundaries all over the place, and models seem to have feedback issues. KDDC and KICT radars, as well as SFC observations, indicate an OFB extending along the KS/OK border the entire length of KS. In the TX panhandle, the DL was slowly retreating westward along US-287 N of AMA. Dewpoints are still in the 65-70F range in the warm sector along and S of the OFB. Upstream soundings (AMA, EPZ, ABQ, FGZ, and TUS) indicate nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates from the SFC through 500mb, along with warm temperatures in the mid-levels. Differential advection of steep mid-level lapse rates from the SW, with moisture from the SSE on Tuesday, should result in strong instability and capping. H7 temperatures in excess of 15C will suppress convection most of the day, with initiation holding off until the early evening when the LLJ strengthens and noses into the area. A mid-level shortwave will approach WRN KS after 02Z, with an associated SFC low-pressure strengthening over the OK panhandle, which may provide enough forcing for initiation.
- Bill
11:31 PM CDT, 06/15/09
Chase target:
35 miles south of Garden City, KS.
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated high-based supercell storms will form after 8 PM CDT. Large hail and severe wind will be the primary severe risks. Photogenic LP storms will be possible given the relative isolated nature of the convection.
Discussion (OK, KS):
Today’s widespread convection has made a mess out of the surface map with boundaries all over the place, and models seem to have feedback issues. KDDC and KICT radars, as well as SFC observations, indicate an OFB extending along the KS/OK border the entire length of KS. In the TX panhandle, the DL was slowly retreating westward along US-287 N of AMA. Dewpoints are still in the 65-70F range in the warm sector along and S of the OFB. Upstream soundings (AMA, EPZ, ABQ, FGZ, and TUS) indicate nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates from the SFC through 500mb, along with warm temperatures in the mid-levels. Differential advection of steep mid-level lapse rates from the SW, with moisture from the SSE on Tuesday, should result in strong instability and capping. H7 temperatures in excess of 15C will suppress convection most of the day, with initiation holding off until the early evening when the LLJ strengthens and noses into the area. A mid-level shortwave will approach WRN KS after 02Z, with an associated SFC low-pressure strengthening over the OK panhandle, which may provide enough forcing for initiation.
- Bill
11:31 PM CDT, 06/15/09
