6/16/06 NOW: KS / OK / TX / CO / NE / MN

Mar 6, 2005
Currently a tornado-warned cell directly over Goodland, KS and the NWS radar. Warning text says that the public reported a tornado 15 miles southwest of Goodland moving northeast at 40mph.

Good outbounds/inbounds on Goodland's radar (directly over it) - but I'm not terribly sure how to interpret velocity when it's directly over the radar site. There was a GRLevel3-indicated TVS about 5 minutes ago, however.

Anybody chasing?

A SVR watch is in place for parts of CO,TX,OK,KS,NE,SD,IA and MN. I am also watching these storms on radar. Some DBZ of 70-75 is showing up on radar with some of the storms in eastern CO. You forgot to add NE and SD as they are also getting severe weather from this event. Mabey a MOD could fix that?
storm on the southern end of that eastern colorado-western kansas line, moving into morton and stanton counties in kansas contines to exhibit a nice "notch on th south side of as well as a descent velocity couplet to with it. Their have already been tornadoes spotted it than relatively (compared to other areas) low LCL enviroment in far western kansas. It is most likely just a matter of time though intil this entire area goes outflow dominant so its probably just a breif window.

EDIT: the velocity couplet on the northern storm near Atwood, kansas has also picked it up in last few frames. Stanton cell not looking quite as good as ten minutes ago
Interesting report from earlier; tornado observed from the NWS Goodland office
0119 PM TORNADO 1 W GOODLAND 39.35N 101.73W


0119 PM TORNADO 1 W GOODLAND 39.35N 101.73W

http://mgweather-kansas.blogspot.com/ KANSAS WEATHER BLOG
http://mgweather-nebraska.blogspot.com/ NEBRASKA WEATHER BLOG
http://mgweather-oklahoma.blogspot.com/ OKLAHOMA WEATHER BLOG
http://mgweather.blogspot.com/ BLOG OF WEATHER LINKS
Sitting in Dighton, KS....and we have been on 3 freaking storms today, one had a funnel cloud, but was very weak, and rotating slowly, however, it did in fact get ripped apart, by severe outflow winds, and died. We were on another storm, earlier that had a pretty wierd feature, it was like a tail cloud, however it was rotating. A few minutes aago we were in a strong gust front, that blasted us with 60-70+ MPH winds....don't know what to do now...probably headed to Woodward, OK for tommorow.
Well watching a couple cells that may sneak into my forecast area (WI) shortly. First is right over Minneapolis. It has reports of downed trees with it right before it hit the downtown area which is at ~550 pm local. Big VIL spike over that area, VILD of 5.35 with radar max hail size of 3.25".
No dirty tricks...the hail size estimates are meant to have a high bias (I'm at the lab and me and Arthur Witt were just talking about it), because if you fit estimates to what is available in Storm Data, you won't get anything over a golf ball report from the algorithm. Kinda of the point to SHAVE is see if we can help improve in the estimate area (dual-pol would help a lot too). Back to the storms---like how big that E TX Panhandle storm is....I hope it holds together and gets near the OKC metro...haven't seen a good lightning bolt in awhile.
Ugh. The curse of 2006 continues... Moisture has been completely scoured across the TX panhandle and western OK, with dewpoints dropping into the 52-58F range. With temperatures in the 88-100F range, dewpoint depressions are running 30-40F, yielding sky high cloud bases. Dan and I have meandered around the storms in the central and eastern tX panhandle, seeing lots of dust. We were trying to beat the current bow to Wheeler, but realized that it was going to beat us. So, we're back in Shamrock. We see a rain-free base to our southwest, but my hopes are lowen the high LCLs.

Is this year over yet? {didn't I say that last year?}
SVR storm in the Saint Paul Minisota area with Qaurter Sized Hail and winds 65+ possible. A huge storm on radar in the texas panhandel with DBZ of 65-70 on radar. This event was alot more then I expected. The noaa had a slight risk today but dont you think this is a high risk outbreak or atleast a MOD risk Even if there is only a few tornadoes?.
Is this year over yet? {didn't I say that last year?}

Nope. Not for another 5.5 monthes anyways LOL :mellow:... Just to think... We'll have the pleasure of outflow-dominant crap storms for the next 5.5 monthes!

Well, given the whole warm sector exploded quite early (as a result of the intense large-scale ascent brought upon by strong boundary WAA/convergence being aided by strong upper-level divergence (and mid-level DPVA)) with not enough of an inversion to begin with (leading to the widespread coverage of convection)... Current SPC mesoanalysis shows a sharp kinematic transition zone existing across western OK (with 0-6km shear weakening dramatically upstream from the convective band pushing onto the TX/OK state line -- leading to a gradual weakening with time) with about ~1000j/kg of mlCAPE available to the updrafts. Of course, another factor that didn't helped today was the moisture being mixed out through solar radiation earlier in the afternoon (is this the 500th time I've said this in 2006) resulting in high cloud bases (and stronger evaporative cooling in downdrafts).

Someone needs to shoot 2006... :blink:
That is why I am not chasing anymore this YEAR (baring a high risk). I can make the preemptive assumption that moisture will mix out, and 95% of the time I will be right.

Drought relief is the only thing good about this event, northern wichita county(not wichita the city) has, acoording to doppler estimations received up to 6 inches of rain from yesterday and today! Also an extremely large area of 1-3, locally 4-5 inches of rain, again this all acoording to doppler estimatins which could be a little overdone.
Looking at the radar loops and the storm total precip already I'm thinking nw IA is going to have some flooding issues, lol. 5-8 inches via the radar and it's got a long way to go. Looks like at least 2 intense squalls will go through the same area.
impressive bow cell storm in western WFOFWD-CWA heading east.
SPC issued MD 1212 earlier concerning this activity and believes this activity stands good chance of continuing in intensity and possibly approaching metroplex.
Am currently at home in SE Parker Co. as I am home for the weekend and am currently watching an impressive light show on my third floor outdoor balcony looking west. Looks like were gonna rock and roll here in a bit.

Also worth reading is SPC MD 1216 for central and SW Oklahoma. SPC apparantly is really concerned about this quasi-linear line, dont ask my why, but they believe this could be a high end severe weather event with possible isolated tornadoes.

Oh and and up on my third floor outdoor balcony here and it is an absolute gale up here and its not b/c of storm is just the intense surface winds and theyve been like that ever since I got here at 4:30 this afternoon.

EDIT: FWS radar is down and WFOFWD is currently feverishly working on it. Updates can be found HERE on status of NEXRAD WSR-88D FWS
Wasn't much here in Northeast Kansas, my friend and I went out to some local hilltops hoping to get some decent lightning pictures, but it was mostly just a rain storm, and with couple ground strikes, at least, the portion we got. I was told by my dad that the real hail producer went south of us, but eh. at least driving in the heavy rain sheets was interesting for a first time.