6/13/07 FCST: KS / OK / TX

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, I've only been able to look at the NAM so far, but there's an outside shot of a supercell across, IMO, primarily western OK tomorrow. Though flow at all levels is relatively marginal, some decent directional shear yields 30-35kt deep-layer shear. When combined with the potential of 2000-3000 j/kg CAPE, there may be an outside shot of a supercell (and an even more outside shot of a tornado across the area tomorrow. Purely from the NAM forecast, I like the area from west-central into southwestern OK, downstream of a sfc low over TX.

Time-sensitive links:
00z forecast sounding for CSM --> http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_overlays.cgi?fcsthr=024&STATIONID=KCSM

03z forecast sounding for HBR --> http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_overlays.cgi?fcsthr=027&STATIONID=KHBR

EDIT: 00z GFS shows reasonable shear profiles across the southern Plains tomorrow as well, with WSW 250mb at 30-45kts and SE 850mb flow at 20kts. Again, I can't expect much from mid-June, but I'd rather my last southern-plains chase not be the big bustola of last Thurs. Respectable near-surface shear (e.g. 0-1km SRH) may even give us a surprise 'violently rotating column of air connection to an updraft and cloudbase'.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Targeting western OK today. Somewhat out of position as day started in North Platte. Plains north of Liberal are all worked over. So going south as far as I can get. ETA upper winds don't look too shabby. But deccrease towards 00Z this puts things out of synch I suppose with the best instability.

 

[Angie Norris]

I'm thinking the Altus area for today. Looks like the best combination of shear and moisture in the southwest corner of OK with nice convergence on the cold front later this afternoon.
Good luck to everybody who is wandering out today!

 

[Brian Stertz]

Certainly in agreement with that SW Oklahoma target zone by this evening. Nice backed sfc winds...fairly high CAPEs...0-1km shear values of 20-35 kts. should support legit supercells today...and the associated threat for tornadoes. I am liking the Mangum-Hobart OK area. Best of luck to those chasing today.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Western Okla. target for 0Z

I'm not throwing in the towel yet for this part of the country. Today holds what could be a suprise for some lucky person chasing between Arnett, OK. down to Altus between 23Z to 01Z, as whats been already discussed, shear parameters are barely adequate by this time frame for anything more than a few elevated mesos that MAY briefly come down low enough to trigger the TVS alarms, and just MAYBE, a quick surface spinup might be sighted if its not rain wrapped. Cu is already developing along a surface boundary in the eastern row of counties of the TX PH, a low level jet should commence sometime around 23Z enough to increase helicities to sustain strong discrete updrafts that will then quickly merge into an mcs by sunset. We'll see quite a light show tonight not to mention some excessive rainfalls. ... and speaking of rainfall, the latest WRF has an obscene amount of rain progged over the next 48 hours for cntrl&southern Okla. like, around 7"+!! I don't buy this, probably a convective feedback signal??? 1-2" will be fairly common I surmise.

I hope to link up with the Ewoldt chase team and any others. This will very likely be my last chase ontil I head up north in July or for sure when the fall season commences.

Cell: 405-226-2996

Rocky&family