6/10/06 NOW: NE / CO / KS

[rdale]

LNX shows 70kts of GTG shear and tremendous overhang with a cell west of the radarsite, between Alliance and Oshkosh. Near a TOR'd cell earlier that had no reports. Looks good, but pretty far away so not getting good slices of the low levels.

 

[nickgrillo]

Well, a couple tornadoes were reported northwest NE/southwest SD where the LCLs were lower (~800-1000m) compared to further south in the warm sector. Latest RUC mesoanalysis shows considerable MLCINH in the upstream boundary layer from the main convective band propogating eastward across western NE -- suggesting that storms may become completely decoupled from the boundary layer in response to the increasing static stability further east (forcing elevated parcels -- ergo storm inflow becoming rooted above the stable layer). Nonetheless, the strong 0-6km shear is very adequate for sustained severe storms -- although I'm guessing storms will weaken within the next hour or so with the loss of surface-based inflow (and the onset of nocturnal cooling) -- already evident by the loss of intensity in convection further to the north.

Well to the east in MO, strong surface-based convection has initiated in the past couple of hours along the sfc warm front in northern MO (in a region of enhanced sfc moisture convergence) with RUC mesoanalysis showing >2500j/kg of SBCAPE along and south of the frontal zone -- with adequate deep-layer kinematic profiles across the region for sustained supercells and bow echoes (although cloud bases should be particularly high -- particularly as storms move south of the front).

 

[Matthew K. Hartman]

Buddy of mine is now on the cell in eastern Keith County. Eastbound on 80 (I assume, haven't talked to him) and indicating this:

...from his in-vehicle live cam. May be the edge of an updraft base on the far right.

Edit: Actually, it's likely just a portion of the shelf cloud, if he's driving eastward... May be repositioning at the present time for TOR warned action further to the north.