6/10/06 NOW: NE / CO / KS

rdale

EF5
LNX shows 70kts of GTG shear and tremendous overhang with a cell west of the radarsite, between Alliance and Oshkosh. Near a TOR'd cell earlier that had no reports. Looks good, but pretty far away so not getting good slices of the low levels.
 
Well, a couple tornadoes were reported northwest NE/southwest SD where the LCLs were lower (~800-1000m) compared to further south in the warm sector. Latest RUC mesoanalysis shows considerable MLCINH in the upstream boundary layer from the main convective band propogating eastward across western NE -- suggesting that storms may become completely decoupled from the boundary layer in response to the increasing static stability further east (forcing elevated parcels -- ergo storm inflow becoming rooted above the stable layer). Nonetheless, the strong 0-6km shear is very adequate for sustained severe storms -- although I'm guessing storms will weaken within the next hour or so with the loss of surface-based inflow (and the onset of nocturnal cooling) -- already evident by the loss of intensity in convection further to the north.

Well to the east in MO, strong surface-based convection has initiated in the past couple of hours along the sfc warm front in northern MO (in a region of enhanced sfc moisture convergence) with RUC mesoanalysis showing >2500j/kg of SBCAPE along and south of the frontal zone -- with adequate deep-layer kinematic profiles across the region for sustained supercells and bow echoes (although cloud bases should be particularly high -- particularly as storms move south of the front).
 
Buddy of mine is now on the cell in eastern Keith County. Eastbound on 80 (I assume, haven't talked to him) and indicating this:

GuyerCam.jpg


...from his in-vehicle live cam. May be the edge of an updraft base on the far right.

Edit: Actually, it's likely just a portion of the shelf cloud, if he's driving eastward... May be repositioning at the present time for TOR warned action further to the north.
 
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