6/09/2010 NOW: CO/WY

[Adam Adkins]

SPC has issued a tornado watch from Cheyenne to near Colorado Springs. CAP is eroding nicely with CAPE values over 3500 j/kg. Cumulus field exists over the northern mountains and palmer divide. Temperatures are in the 80's with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s. Bulk shear is from 50-60. Storms should fire shortly across northeast Colorado. It is time for a now thread!

 

[Eian Greene]

Hopefully, we'll see a good Sup close to home today... The Palmer Divide in setups like this, almost always provides a good source of orographic lifting, and the DCVZ might be a player later on this afternoon for potential cells to the NE of Denver.

 

[Mark Blue]

700 mb temps on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis are still warm in Denver where the 15° C isotherm goes right over Denver. The WY border has an 11° C isotherm there, so it appears the more northerly target may be the play again today. The storms in the NE panhandle are on the 9° C isotherm coincidentally. A small Cu tower tried to grow upscale on my way home 45 minutes ago but died shortly thereafter, so it still seems capped here in Denver.

 

[Eian Greene]

Hey, Eian - I think the correct term is "orographic lifting" - "orthographic" is associated with drawing and language

Thanks for catching that! I should say... Orographic lifting shall play a factor in today's setup, especially as I'm seeing a potentially healthy cell near KAFA, roughly 5mi N of my location. May be something significant as it gets into eastern Douglas/western Elbert County in a half-hour or so.

 

[Adam Adkins]

Well what a big fat bust that turned out to be. I drove allover northeast Colorado looking for initiation but never found it. It seemed like the CAP had eroded enough for storm development. CAPE and shear were great all day. It looks like initiation was suppressed by subsidence behind a shortwave.

 

[Jeff Passner]

Many reasons: It was warm in the mid-levels +14 at 700 hPa and -6.3 at 500 hPa at Denver. The Denver sounding also showed pathetic winds below 700 hPa so there was not much convergence. Still, the biggest issue was the wave timing. The area you were in was between a departing shortwave and an approaching one. There was significant subsidence in the region as indicated by the updrafts that died. Just one of those days. there's going to be another chance the next few days. It happens.

 

[Adam Adkins]

Yep it happens. Oh well. This reminds me of my first chase when I drove allover and saw nothing for many of the same reasons. I must learn from my mistakes. Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it.