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6/01/05 FCST: Panhandles

I agree. Major pattern shift is coming per GFS/ECMWF. Chaser's...get ready for the first week of June because it looks to be a hellova week across TX/OK/KS.
 
This has been a solution for the past few days (a large cut-off low in the southwest), but the latest 0z run now does away with this solution. Instead, the latest GFS now keeps general riding across the Rockies and southern plains, though it shows a more progressive trough that moves across the central/northern US. The ECMWF doesn't extend out to this period yet, but it would support a deeper western US trough given a very strong jet streak diving down near California. However, the trough axis looks a bit far west to really yield a nice western US trough with strong flow over the southern plains. It would seem to me that, as the jet streak round the base of the trough, the trough will stop deepening and beginning shifting eastward. If that's the case, it'll probably be a bit too far west of the southern plains, though I'd still expect good flow aloft across the central/northern plains.

As I've stated since March, this will fall into the second of two time periods during which I CANNOT chase. The first was graduation weekend 5-12 through 5-15. I'm going home to MN for my brother's HS graduation, so I'll likely be unavailable 6-1 through 6-6 -- just in time for this trough. :roll:
 
I'll admit, I dont know my forecasting that well, but I do hope this pattern pans out. I'll be able to get in a good chase day or 2 before I head back home. lets cross our fingers 8)
 
It doesn't matter if you are a good or bad forecaster... 7 days out is way too soon to think that the atmospheric dynamics will or will not be conducive to severe weather. We have a hard enough time saying bust or no bust on day 1... :)
 
Well, its about time I come out of Hibernation isn't it? I absolutely refuse to chase 90% of NWly flow situations, no matter how dire the straights. I've had my eye on the extreme Late-May early June Time Frame ever since this ridge was getting ready to set in. I think this is just what the doctor ordered to get the atmosphere regeared to go.

First off, I see 40-50kt SWly winds across the plains during the time period (~6/1) and I also see TDs up over 70 and pushing 80 in some locales. I would not be at all shocked to have a pretty lively week across the plains over the first week or two of June. Looks good to me, no school anymore, plenty of money, I'm going chasing if things keep holding on...
 
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