This has been a solution for the past few days (a large cut-off low in the southwest), but the latest 0z run now does away with this solution. Instead, the latest GFS now keeps general riding across the Rockies and southern plains, though it shows a more progressive trough that moves across the central/northern US. The ECMWF doesn't extend out to this period yet, but it would support a deeper western US trough given a very strong jet streak diving down near California. However, the trough axis looks a bit far west to really yield a nice western US trough with strong flow over the southern plains. It would seem to me that, as the jet streak round the base of the trough, the trough will stop deepening and beginning shifting eastward. If that's the case, it'll probably be a bit too far west of the southern plains, though I'd still expect good flow aloft across the central/northern plains.
As I've stated since March, this will fall into the second of two time periods during which I CANNOT chase. The first was graduation weekend 5-12 through 5-15. I'm going home to MN for my brother's HS graduation, so I'll likely be unavailable 6-1 through 6-6 -- just in time for this trough. :roll:
