5/7/07 FCST: NM / TX / OK

[Tim Marshall]

Still watching from home as to whether I will be chasing day. I don't like all this convection around this morning, but the deep layer shear will make me keep one eye on the radar. If I do chase today, it will be around the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. However, RUC and GFS want to back the surface winds all the way into West Texas and there may be a seconday play out there in the San Angelo area as the rain cooled air is reheated. The past three days have been exhausting so I may lay low today. TM

 

[Warren Faidley]

5/7/07 FCST: SW-TX/SE-NM

If anyone still has any energy left to chase.... looks like a chance for an early isolated cell(s) in the SW Texas area before an MCS blob forms later this afternoon/tonight. Capes of 2,500 and 40-50 kts. in the region per SPC data. Target LBB and areas SW/SE as the surface winds back (hopefully). Nice cu fields in the latest sat. image.

Warren

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for today, May 7

Chase target:
Greenville, TX (50 miles NE of Dallas).

Timing:
Renewed convection at 5 PM CDT.

Synopsis:
Supercells early in storm evolution, with a transition to multicell storms during the evening hours.

UA map in indicated slow EWRD movement of high-amplitude H5 WRN US positively-tilted trough. Mid-level temperatures over NERN TX had cooled a few degrees from yesterday, with H7 temperatures around 7C along the Red River; while a 10C thermal ridge was nosing into the DRT to AQO area. Ongoing convection has complicated the SFC picture, with a considerable amount of debris CI and several boundaries. Synoptic low pressure was centered near SPS in TX with a WF extending E of this feature along the Red River while the primary CF extended S and SW along a GDJ to BWD to SOA line in TX. Visible satellite imagery clearly showed an OFB in the warm sector along a DUA to 20 miles W of DAL to ILE line in TX, and this feature was moving E at 25 kts. A narrow tongue of 70F+ dewpoints had worked N and NE into NERN TX.

Discussion:

The aforementioned OFB should provide the focus for renewed convection later this afternoon. Strong instability with MLCAPE’s to 2500J/kG will be juxtaposed with modest deep-layer (SFC-6km) of 30 kts along with SRH’s (SFC-3km) of 150m2/s2 as a 20kt LLJ lifts over backed 10kt SFC flow. Overnight, a 30kt LLJ will refocus elevated convection to the west in the Childress to Wichita Falls area.

- bill

 

[Tim Marshall]

Looking at the 18z data, there is an old outflow boundary along the Red River that bears watching. A small surface low has developed at the west end of this boundary. I'll be watching out for redevelopment along the Red River later today. TM