5/24/08 FCST: SD/NE/IA/KS/OK

[cstrunk]

I'm going to hope that the RUC is on to something with higher dewpoints spreading into SE NE. Lincoln, NE is current sitting with a dewpoint at 58F. Winds are from the southeast, I hope it's enough to get the needed moisture there. If the moisture can arrive, strong insolation will help the atmosphere recover and give us decent cape. I don't like the convection already firing in Eastern KS. However, I think it will continue northeast and possibly weaken. Hopefully it doesn't cost us on moisture return.

If we can keep convection from firing until later this afternoon, I think we will have a good shot at seeing supercells develop within 50 miles of Lincoln, NE. That will be my initial target.

*Slightly off-topic, I apologize... I'm current in St. Joseph, MO planning on heading home in Shenandoah, IA for a few hours and then possibly head west towards Lincoln. If anyone is coming up through Nebraska City I would love to meet you there and share the cost of gas if you would like! If interested, my cell is 712-310-2816.

Good luck to everyone today.

 

[Chris Allington]

Well unfortunately I have to work today otherwise I would likely be waiting around for a couple more hours then heading south of the Lincoln area. Looking at surface obs and vis sat images shows a couple of things of note. 1) Low 60s dewpoints have already spread as far north as CNK and TOP according to 1613z obs, i wouldn't be suprised if the 63 dp reported by GRI was a little high. 2) Ongoing convection across EC KS seems to be waining, you can clearly see some sort of boundary (OFB? Reinforced WF?) being pushed north of the area of storms into Northern KS. I would likely play something moving NNE ward along this boundary or anything that interacts with the WF in the area as it will enhance LL shear.

EDIT: SPC stuck with a slight on the 1630z, it appears 60s DPs have reached Srn NE as BIE is reporting a DP of 61. Give it 3-4 more hours if we can hold off convection and get some more heating and moisture advection I'd say were golden.

 

[Josh Murfield]

Dewpoint is up to 64 here in Lincoln so it looks like we're in good shape so far. MD for northcentral Nebraska, I think we'll sit tight here in Lincoln for a bit longer this afternoon.