5/22/06 FCST: CO

[Andrew Stoller]

I know I'm a novice at this stuff so bear with me. A lead shortwave looks to swing around the approaching larger upper level trough now over the western US. Dewpoints progged to be in the mid 50s with strong southeasterly winds beneath southwesterly upper flow (although fairly weak). Cape of 2,000 to 3,000 j/kg are forecast. Orographic/upslope lifting could be the magic that seems to light up the high plains along the Palmer divide from Colorado Springs towards Limon and northeast from there. NWS Denver office mentions possibility of a tornado in the HWO At this point, I'm desperate, so I'll be heading out just for the first really good prospect of big puffy towers in my area this season.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Monday is looking pretty good for eastern CO.
If the dewpoints rise high enough to lower the LCL's tomorrow afternoon, the strong southeasterly flow is enough to compensate for the factor of the weaker southwesterly flow and give a decent possibility of some tornadoes. As always, will be playing the DCVZ or any other surface boundaries for the best cells, as they tend to get rooted in that boundary and sometimes become prolific tornado producers ( take the May 10, 2004 Cedar Point cyclic supercell for example) So I'm going to see if I can shift those tests I was supposed to take tomorrow after school to Wednesday afternoon so I can chase tomorrow. Really hoping my parents clear it, because I have a good feeling about tomorrow and I don't want to miss out like I did two years ago, where I was 40 miles north of the storm, I could see it, I knew it was tornadic, but my mom didn't want to drive down there (this was when I was 14, before my license) so I missed out on it and was really pissed off about it. I'm not about to let THAT happen again. :angry: If I can go, my prelimary target is going to be Last Chance at 3 p.m., and I'll hang out at the Dairy King for however long it takes the convection to initiate and then follow the best looking storms from there.
Hey Andrew, if you're heading up from the Springs, do you want to meet me at the Dairy King and chase together if my folks let me go? It would be nice to chase with someone else, as a) this will be my first completely solo chase and B) I have no way to gather data whatsoever. I really hate to chase like this but I haven't had time to purchase a wifi card for my laptop and GRLVL3, and since I have pretty good storm intuition and a nice little portable radio with the NOAA weatherband on it, so that's the way the cookie crumbles for now.
If you'd rather not, that's cool I guess but if so that would be awesome! :lol:
Send me a PM if interested.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Just looked at 0z NAM and CO front range doesn't have almost any mid level or upper flow until 0z and then it is fairly weak only just getting into the area. You might have a brief window near - oh, just realized you guys are mountain time. That gives another hour from 0z so maybe there is a bit of game on late in the day. Good luck.

 

[Stan Rose]

Well, if i weren't working id probably be chasing it.
Looks like a good chance of severe storms tomorrow, especially toward eve as that short wave really kicks
in from the southwest. shear should be ok, 35 kts or so, especially toward the eve. As for tornadoes, well can't rule it out though things are reeeallly dry in the low levs--look at the DEN 00Z sounding for a good example. Deep moisture gets kicked east pretty quickly. Somewhat encouraging to see mid 40s show up over the E plains tonight though, so hopefully will get some more. NAMs 53+ dews maybe a bit too high, but ill settle for upp 40s+. There were lots of boundaries set up today so tomorrow shouldn't be too different--that will be a big plus. The western Palmr looks good for initiation, and if the NAM is to be believed may get a slug of CAPE coming up through the SE grasslands in the early evening which could make things interesting as shear will be getting pretty good by then. Im not expecting a big day tomorrow, but nothing would surprise me

 

[Paul Knightley]

We're overnighting in Sterling, CO after seeing a couple of strong storms today. Not sure quite where we'll be heading tomorrow yet, but probably within 100 miles or so of here.

 

[Bob Schafer]

With all due respect, I think there's been an outbreak of wishcasting in this thread.

I'm hitting the road in the morning, for what is likely to be the longest chase I've ever undertaken (IA Wed, ND Sat, etc.??), so I'm in play for tomorrow, but to me it looks like a throw-away day.

There are just too many reasons for storms in CO to be a waste of time, but we'll see, eh? I will nevertheless either target CO or W KS, though, since I'm going to be out anyway.

 

[Stan Rose]

With all due respect, I think there's been an outbreak of wishcasting in this thread.

I'm hitting the road in the morning, for what is likely to be the longest chase I've ever undertaken (IA Wed, ND Sat, etc.??), so I'm in play for tomorrow, but to me it looks like a throw-away day.

There are just too many reasons for storms in CO to be a waste of time, but we'll see, eh? I will nevertheless either target CO or W KS, though, since I'm going to be out anyway.
[/b]

Hey Bob: I am definitely straining to be optimistic, but im surprised to hear you say 'waste of time'. You must be forgetting that Colorado magic. Remember a certain tornadic storm 4 or 5 years ago that dropped an F2 near Last Chance? You and I were probably the only Stormtrack members on that storm. It was a day when there was no slight risk, and dews in the 40s. I was driving back to DEN from a busted chase near Witchita (Mod risk there, watch box for 'large destructive' tornadoes'...cap held). 45 minutes from my flight departure, much to my surprise i spotted a large CB near the airport, and of course had to risk missing my flight to give chase. That was a real beast of a storm, and I never ruled out CO after that! There were a number of severe storms in E CO that verified today, and tomorrow more ingredients will be in place. Maybe no classic chases, but i'll be surprised if it busts!

 

[Joe Zemek]

I wouldn't change too many plans for this setup, but in CO 850 Tds are more significant, and there's some indication that 14C Tds will make it to the CO/NE/KS border area. The models do not show a nice rich flow of those Tds, but what else is new. IF the Ely SFC winds persist overnight across KS the moisture situation could look decent, and if there's some remnant outflow boundary from tonight's NW KS convection, bonus. I'd probably start in Julesburg for directional & speed options.

Good luck, chasers!

 

[Bob Schafer]

Hey Bob: I am definitely straining to be optimistic, but im surprised to hear you say 'waste of time'. You must be forgetting that Colorado magic. Remember a certain tornadic storm 4 or 5 years ago that dropped an F2 near Last Chance? You and I were probably the only Stormtrack members on that storm.[/b]

Stan, I remember plenty of great CO storms! LOL When I made that last post, though, models were telling me to expect Td's way down in the 40's, even possibly 30's, and everything else looked pretty crappy, too. e.g. LI's of "0".

Gotta mentally compensate for the fact that models don't work for CO, but still....

This morning I am seeing models showing some serious moisture (for CO) in extreme ne CO later on, and metars currently have 58's @ SPD & LAA. Whoa. This may be more of a NE chase, really, but hope to see you out today!

I'm getting my coffee fix, then I'm out the door in a couple hours. I expect to see initiation already underway by the time I come down LaVeta pass about noon.

 

[Mark Farnik]

I woke up early this morning and stepped outside... UGH! It is HUMID out here. The current dewpoint at Akron is 52 and rising, so that is a very good sign for what is to come this afternoon. When you get dewpoints in the mid and upper 50's around here, that ol' Colorado magic really turns some tricks!
Unfortunately, I couldn't get out of taking those tests, so at least between three and four I'm stuck at school. After that I have three hours until my little sister's concert at 7 p.m., so I'm hoping we get a really good supercell up in the vicinity of Fort Morgan in that time frame. Why must I be tied down on what looks like the only decent chase day for the High Plains for at least a week? Grrr... :angry:
I'm hoping (and have a good feeling) that June is going to be an awesome chase month not just in the High Plains but across all the Great Plains. And there's always monsoon chasing in July/August; the High Plains see some of their nastiest severe wx outbreaks in July and August.
I would not be surprised to see either a few seperate tornadoes or another Cedar Point type cyclic supercell in an area north and east of Elizabeth in Elbert Co. If one of those comes up... well, sorry to my sis, I'll just watch the tape of the concert (my mom's taping it). I'm not going to let another one get away from me like May 10, 2004.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Whew it's humid this morning! (for Colorado that is). Unfortunetally I think the front range is kinda socked in with outflow remnants from last evenings 2 little MCSs that moved southeast out of ne CO, but looking at the satellite, the northeast tip of CO is fairly clear. If it could clear enough along the palmer ridge, I'd stay north of there as a target, like Ceder point, but my gut says the action is gonna be way more to the northeast, even into Wyoming and Nebraska.

 

[Mark Farnik]

It looks like it is going to be an interesting afternoon in the western High Plains. From the 1630 UTC Outlook:

INCREASING MLCAPE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHEAR ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH TORNADO
POTENTIAL INCREASING INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE RUC DEVELOPS 40 KT SSELY LLJ BY 00Z. [/b]

That and the fact the Palmer Ridge is socked in by cloud cover have led me to change my preliminary target to Sterling, CO at 5 p.m. and chase eastwards from there. Best chance of tornadoes looks to be in a rough ellipse bounded on the west by Fort Morgan, CO; on the east by McCook, NE; on the north by Chadron, NE; and on the south by Sharon Springs, KS. I think the storms with the best tornadic potential will be in the central part of the ellipse, where the best deep layer shear and highest dewpoints will reside. As soon as I'm done taking my tests after school I am hopping on I-76 and will gather data at the Sterling Public Library before I head out to points farther east.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Still liking the Sterling area north-eastward this afternoon. RUC breaks out precip here, and has the best combination of CAPE and helicity, especially this evening as the LLJ cranks up. Currently outside the Best Western in Sterling.

 

[Marko Korosec]

I like the area in extreme ne CO, we're now just south of I70 and are targeting Yuma or Holyoke. RUC shows Tds in lower 50s for that area, stronger LLJ during the evening should be enough for some supercells, with a nice tornadic potential (or a bit east of there as Mark already said).

Gotta go, still 2-3h to there