Tony Laubach
EF5
Almost a carbon copy of yesterday's setup happening today. Fortunately I'll be free to chase this one!
Expect a much earlier initiation time in Colorado today as temps will warm easier today as front has gone through. Lower temps and higher dews will create much more ideal LCLs again today for tornatic development. Boundries should be pretty easy to find today after yesterday's convection and those will enhance tornado potential.
Flow still pretty weak out of the west at 500mb, but good SE/E surface flow will continue to advect moisture into the Front Range adding moist upslope to the mix. Shouldn't be an capping issues today with 700mb temps rather cool over 80s SFC temps. Dews in the 60s in Southeast Colorado will give ideal moisture conditions today with the upslope flow. Storms may be HPish, however, with an overabundance of moisture in the area. Heavy rains and hail are certainly very valid threats today. Storms oughta be as slow moving as they were yesterday, so imagine flooding may become a concern if one of those storms roots into 60s dews and sits in one place for a while.
Two areas to watch today; the Palmer Divide and Southeastern Colorado where CAPES are progged to be in order of about 2000/2500 in each place. Best SRH seems to be over the Palmer Divide with another area progged by the RUC to be in extreme SE Colorado. However, the RUC maintains some healthy areas of CINH over the Palmer area, so will have to watch throughout the day to see how that unfolds.
My thoughts, initially to play the Palmer Divide area between I-70 and Hwy 24 between I-25 and Limon. From there, may start moving SE with the storms into SE Colorado and catch the later action down there before turning around and heading home for the night. First warnings of the day for Colorado will be in effect before 3pm today for Palmer Divide areas (Jefferson, Douglas, Elbert, Lincoln counties).
Good luck to all heading out! Excited to see Colorado days lining up!
Expect a much earlier initiation time in Colorado today as temps will warm easier today as front has gone through. Lower temps and higher dews will create much more ideal LCLs again today for tornatic development. Boundries should be pretty easy to find today after yesterday's convection and those will enhance tornado potential.
Flow still pretty weak out of the west at 500mb, but good SE/E surface flow will continue to advect moisture into the Front Range adding moist upslope to the mix. Shouldn't be an capping issues today with 700mb temps rather cool over 80s SFC temps. Dews in the 60s in Southeast Colorado will give ideal moisture conditions today with the upslope flow. Storms may be HPish, however, with an overabundance of moisture in the area. Heavy rains and hail are certainly very valid threats today. Storms oughta be as slow moving as they were yesterday, so imagine flooding may become a concern if one of those storms roots into 60s dews and sits in one place for a while.
Two areas to watch today; the Palmer Divide and Southeastern Colorado where CAPES are progged to be in order of about 2000/2500 in each place. Best SRH seems to be over the Palmer Divide with another area progged by the RUC to be in extreme SE Colorado. However, the RUC maintains some healthy areas of CINH over the Palmer area, so will have to watch throughout the day to see how that unfolds.
My thoughts, initially to play the Palmer Divide area between I-70 and Hwy 24 between I-25 and Limon. From there, may start moving SE with the storms into SE Colorado and catch the later action down there before turning around and heading home for the night. First warnings of the day for Colorado will be in effect before 3pm today for Palmer Divide areas (Jefferson, Douglas, Elbert, Lincoln counties).
Good luck to all heading out! Excited to see Colorado days lining up!