6/22/2006 FCST: CO / KS / OK / TX

[Tony Laubach]

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday's setup happening today. Fortunately I'll be free to chase this one!

Expect a much earlier initiation time in Colorado today as temps will warm easier today as front has gone through. Lower temps and higher dews will create much more ideal LCLs again today for tornatic development. Boundries should be pretty easy to find today after yesterday's convection and those will enhance tornado potential.

Flow still pretty weak out of the west at 500mb, but good SE/E surface flow will continue to advect moisture into the Front Range adding moist upslope to the mix. Shouldn't be an capping issues today with 700mb temps rather cool over 80s SFC temps. Dews in the 60s in Southeast Colorado will give ideal moisture conditions today with the upslope flow. Storms may be HPish, however, with an overabundance of moisture in the area. Heavy rains and hail are certainly very valid threats today. Storms oughta be as slow moving as they were yesterday, so imagine flooding may become a concern if one of those storms roots into 60s dews and sits in one place for a while.

Two areas to watch today; the Palmer Divide and Southeastern Colorado where CAPES are progged to be in order of about 2000/2500 in each place. Best SRH seems to be over the Palmer Divide with another area progged by the RUC to be in extreme SE Colorado. However, the RUC maintains some healthy areas of CINH over the Palmer area, so will have to watch throughout the day to see how that unfolds.

My thoughts, initially to play the Palmer Divide area between I-70 and Hwy 24 between I-25 and Limon. From there, may start moving SE with the storms into SE Colorado and catch the later action down there before turning around and heading home for the night. First warnings of the day for Colorado will be in effect before 3pm today for Palmer Divide areas (Jefferson, Douglas, Elbert, Lincoln counties).

Good luck to all heading out! Excited to see Colorado days lining up!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I will definetally be heading out today since I was progged to go yesterday but decided against it (only to have 2 tornado reports!). Denver AFD mentions possibility of a few tornadoes over Elbert and Lincoln counties/aka Palmer Divide. By this time yesterday, there was already towering cumulous over the front range west of Colorado Springs as I was sitting on my deck looking at it. Today looks much clearer but dews and humidity levels are higher. Forecast discussions around the area mention a small wave hitting the area by early evening and it's evident in 500 mb charts, so that should also help things get going.

Hope to see you out there today Tony. I know you drive a white van; I'll be in a brown Toyota Corolla.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Badda Bing!!!!!!!!!!!!! SPC has southeast CO and the Texas Panhandle under MDT risk now and upgraded the tornado probability to 5%. Mentions low LCLs which will support a tornado threat. There looks to be a stream of upper 50 dews streaming up the Arkansas river valley so I think I may be heading out shortly for southeast CO. I think the Raton Mesa will be the hotspot today. Pueblo NWS HWO is now mentioning tornado threat as well and they seem to be far more reluctant to use that wording than the Denver office.

 

[Mark Farnik]

SPC has just issued an MD for north central/northeastern NM and most of eastern CO. They are planning on issuing a watch in the 19z-20z timeframe. Given the fact that the BOU and PUB HWO's mention the possibility of tornadoes, the SPC mentions the possibility of tornadoes in the MD and they have much of southeastern CO into the northern TX Panhandle outlined 5% for tornadoes, I would say that a tornado watch is not out of the question.
Here is a small portion of the SPC MD text:

AS
STORMS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE
PROFILER IN SERN CO SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED
DENVER CYCLONE IS PRESENT AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INCREASING THE SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS NE CO
AS WELL. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR AS
SUPERCELLS MATURE IN THE CO PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.[/b]

It's looking pretty good! I'm thinking I might head out in an hour or so in the general direction of Limon and go wherever the supercells form! Slow storm movement (under 20 mph) today will be a definite plus, but will also present some potential flash flooding issues.
It finally looks like all the ingredients are in place for once this cussed season, so here's to some High Plains magic this afternoon/evening!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

After checking the satellite and radar, it looks like a solid outlflow boundary has come off the convection in northeast CO and southwest NB and likely will get trapped up on the palmer divide. Satellite observations look like storms are initiating more so along the front range from the Palmer divide southward towards Trinidad. Wheeeeeeeeew, I'm sitting at my desk biting my nails debating on what to do. I took a walk around the block and there is towering cumulus now on the southwest flank of the palmer divide and around Pikes Peak and not quite as much cumulus visible around the Raton Mesa on the satellite. SPC has a MD out for the front range and mentions a WW likely within the hour. I think I'll sit cool for the next hour and keep monitoring the situation (car is fueled, packed and ready for launch!).

:Edit: Southeast CO now under Tornado watch 542.

"Edit" # 2 Severe thunderstorm warning around Canyon City CO and I'm hearing some MAJOR thunder now to my northwest where the Palmer Divide meets the front range foothills.

 

[Mark Farnik]

As Andrew mentioned, TOR watch 542 is now in effect until 7 p.m. MDT for all of east central and southeastern CO. I will be heading out the door in five minutes. A nice, isolated cell has just gone up in the last twenty minutes on the Adams/Arapahoe county line just northeast of Byers, so I am going to target that cell. Additional cells are firing in western Elbert County near Elizabeth and in western Washington County northeast of Last Chance. However the Adams/Araphahoe cell is the strongest (already up to 55 dbz) and is the most pronounced tower on visible satellite. I can also see it from my yard, and it is going atomic as we speak, with beautiful structure readily apparent even from 70 miles away. It will be an interesting day, to say the least.
Good luck to all who chase today! It looks like the High Plains magic is finally working!