5/21/2010 FCST: TX, OK, KS, CO, NE, WY

[Matthew Piechota]

The new 12z WRF is showing a nice signal for the TX PH but I really dont like the weak upper level winds as well as what the LCL's will be in that area. Its going to take quite a bit of convergence along the dryline to get something to go. The H7 temps are progged to be quite high. I wouldn't rule out that area for an isolated storm later this evening but I like the northeast CO play alot more.

Like the Brush to Yuma area for supercells later this afternoon. dew points are already in the low 50's in nw KS/ne KS/nw NE per the 16z obs. The shear is amazing in the area with really nice low level hodographs. will be interesting to see if a denver cyclone can develop later this afternoon.

 

[Chuck Robertson]

I have the day off work today, (off every other Friday), and I am still intrigued by the NAM's insistence on popping storms in the TX PH before 0z. It has been doing this for days now. Frankly, if we can get initiation, the only think I really don't like are the larger T-Td spreads initially, on the order of 20 or more, but that will come down somewhat after peak heating. Other than that, the parameters look descent. They certainly do not say "Violent Tornado", but they do say, "chance of nice, Panhandle sculpted storm", and if the LCL's can lower toward late evening, they say "who knows".

 

[Ian Contreras]

Any chance on adding MI/OH/IN? Lots of cloud cover, but decent dews, CAPE and a lil better shear the further towards the Great Lakes you go.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

Anyone heading to the north target might want to detour around HW 385 north of Burlington, CO. Single lane construction and long delays..

 

[Adam Adkins]

I have a few areas of concern regarding Colorado. First is initiation. None of the models have virtually any QPF in the state! Also, CAP. Shear looks good otherwise, but I just don't know how the storms will fare against the other inhibiting factors. Any other opinions would be nice!! And CO should be added to this thread!

 

[Tyler Burg]

I have a few areas of concern regarding Colorado. First is initiation. None of the models have virtually any QPF in the state!

Just a quick glance at the RUC, NAM, and WRF... all of them break out precip in Colorado, you might be refering to the GFS which doesn't have enough resolution to pick up supercells. Generally you don't want to see a huge area of QPF for isolated supercells.

 

[Adam Adkins]

Thanks a lot! The RUC is showing precip now that I see, and also shows a ton of CAPE and shear for central/eastern CO. Does this setup look better than the setup for CO earlier this week? I chased that day and saw nothing! Right now I am going to play it by ear - especially since I am in an ideal location already!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Nice TCU going up NW of AMA. Mods Might want to start a now thread if not done already.

W.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Looking at the mesoanaylsis and the HRRR I am really liking SE Wyoming around Douglas to Wheatland. Helicity is around 400 m2/s2 at 0-3km currently with over 1000 j/kg of CAPE. The HRRR has a very nice isolated cell up there around 21z only to die out and quickly be replaced by another cell around 0z. To make this more interesting a warm front is postioned in that area from Douglas to Lusk towards the Black Hills and Chadron, NE area. I think any storm to go up in that area will pose a decent tornado threat.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Impressive dryline slowly meandering NW (along surface wind shifts) now showing up on AMA radar, especially with about a -18 dBZ filer.

The last time I saw a westward moving signature this remarkable here all heck broke lose in the OK Panhandle.

We will see.

W.