5/15/09 FCST: IL/IA/MO/KS/OK

[Bill Tabor]

I don't have a lot of time so just barely glanced at the RUC and NAM. Looks like there is some tornado potential but I'd say limited. I'd go with about a 5% the length of the front from OK/KS area. RUC seems to be a bit more favorable with stronger sfc winds, but the 850's still show veered mostly along the boundary and mid / upper level support is still fairly weak - overall limiting potential. Some of you might have a shot.

Good luck to those of you out today and on your 'Chasecation'. I can't make it up as I have visitors coming in from out of town.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Looks like a classic warm front day in western and central Illinois this evening. Abundant clear skies south of the warm front should allow rapid destabilization and a northward surge of the front this afternoon. Should be around Interstate 72 by around 4 PM. Will be key in getting a supercell to initiate and latch on to the warm front, but should it do so, classic hockey stick hodographs would certainly favor tornado development.

I'd watch the Interstate 72 corridor from Jacksonville to Decatur this evening.

 

[John Gnuechtel]

I'm gonna hang out around ICT today. I'm hoping that the trough extending roughly from Salina to Amarillo can give a decent show and allow me to drift ESE. Perhaps an OFB from the storms currently occuring to the NE can make it down here, but I'm not sure. Surface winds are decently strong, though not backed, and we're already near 3000J/kg of SBCAPE. Seems like whatever pops should be pretty interesting even if it doesn't spin long (if ever).
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[Jason Boggs]

Well, after looking at a few things, I'm going to target just south of Canadian, TX.

The road options are terrible, but I'll have to deal with it. Storm motion should be slow, so that will help out a bit.

CAPE will be high in this area, but the upper level winds are pretty weak up through 250mb in much of the warm sector. I'm not expecting much today, but maybe I can see some decent structure before it congeals into a mess later this evening.

I really think there may be a threat for flooding later tonight due to training of cells and their slow movement. Anyway, good luck to all that venture out today.

 

[Brent A. Clair]

Well we are enjoying your typical mesoscale crapfest system moving through Western Illinois at this time, thereby squashing any chance of good storms this afternoon. Sitting at 60 degrees with only a few potential hours of sunshine and the rain has not pushed through yet. So, for us, I am calling off the dogs and looking towards the southwest into western MO. I guess you can't have it twice in one week.

 

[Eric Flescher]

Now thread is not up Tornado watch just issued

Driving around here in Olathe it's really getting windy.
Tornado watch has just been issued for several MO and KS counties including Wyandotte, Johnson etc

My step son has his graduation today in Lawrence, KS and we are supposed to be there before 4 at the Lied Center.

Good luck and stay safe

 

[Mike Johnston]

Obvious NE/SW-oriented boundary visible on KDDC radar, moving east over the last couple of hours - seemingly co-located w/ the wind shift line. Will be moving into area of 4,500 j/kg SB CAPE over S Central, KS over the next 3 hours or so....not very good deep layer shear here, but some low-level helicity.

 

[Rob H]

Tor watch just went up in Western IL, TX Panhandle, OK, and KS. Looks like some Cu going up quickly in the TX Panhandle near that boundary... I guess its NOW time.

Did anyone else notice that 6500+ CAPE that the RUC was forecasting for this evening? I haven't been paying attention to Skew-T's for very long, but that's definitely the highest one I've ever seen forecasted.