Jeff Snyder
EF5
There appears to be decent potential for a few supercells from the Red River region eastward today, as strong shear profiles and decent instability develop across the risk area. The 12z NAM, consistent with previous runs, is indicating 45-55+ kts of 0-6km shear in the area, and temps in the 80-92F range with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s should yield >2500-3500 j/kg CAPE as well. Again, Tds on the NAM appear overdone (70s? Not a chance), but low to mid 60s are currently streaming across southern and central Texas towards the area. With southeasterly sfc flow near the front veering to northwesterly aloft, nice hodographs should characterize the area by afternoon (Gainesville TX forecast soundings), with 250-350 0-3km SRH.
12z soundings indicate that the moisture is pretty shallow over SHV and FWD, but it's considerably better on CRP and BRO. The lack of deeper and better moisture is precluding a more significant tornado risk at this time, as resultant high LCLs should keep that threat at bay. Regardless, some nicely-structure high-based supercells are a good bet given the CAPE and shear present.
Edit: I should note that a big caveat on this setup is initiation. Capping and relatively weak vertical velocities may make it a little difficult to get convection. Of course, this also means that there's a good chance that activity will be isolated or widely scattered. Initation chances increase near sunset as the LLJ picks up, but no guaranteeing that those will be sfc-based.
12z soundings indicate that the moisture is pretty shallow over SHV and FWD, but it's considerably better on CRP and BRO. The lack of deeper and better moisture is precluding a more significant tornado risk at this time, as resultant high LCLs should keep that threat at bay. Regardless, some nicely-structure high-based supercells are a good bet given the CAPE and shear present.
Edit: I should note that a big caveat on this setup is initiation. Capping and relatively weak vertical velocities may make it a little difficult to get convection. Of course, this also means that there's a good chance that activity will be isolated or widely scattered. Initation chances increase near sunset as the LLJ picks up, but no guaranteeing that those will be sfc-based.