Kelly Sugden
Is anyone chasing today. Thinking that southwest Oklahoma looks fair today. Won't be like yesterday but its better than nothing.
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W. Grant Dade
EF2
Today is a very interesting set up. Very little forcing and a strong cap will limit the amount of storms that develop and could keep storms from forming all together. However, if a storm is able to develop it appears it would go severe quite rapidly. 0-6km shear 35 to 45 knots is nowhere near what we saw yesterday however, 4000+J/kg of CAPE should be more than enough to support supercell development. Also SRH is decent along and north of the Red River. Both the RUC and NAM are hinting the cap will be breakable this afternoon, lid strength index less than 2°C. Also storm movement will be much slower than yesterday, around 20 knots. I like the Waurika, OK area later today. Latest SPC convective outlook seems to agree there is too much uncertainty now but, if storms do develop we will see a much greater hail and tornado probability.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
I see potential today for a chase in SW and W/C Oklahoma, particularly from near I-40 and west of I-35 (say about near El Reno and a tad north).
The things that seem to really stick out are both the very high CAPE in place as progged by the RUC (near 6000) and a modest SRH of around 150-200 (more as you head north).
A developing lee cyclone is forcasted in Colorado as well as the stationary / warm front stretching from NW to SW over the northern part of the state. The only major negative I see is the 700 MB temperatures around 8 C, causing a potential cap.
A dryline mixing out eastward late in the day may help with the cap, and the RUC 12 hour does break out a blob of 3-hr precipitation in SW Oklahoma around 23z.
I see potential today for a chase in SW and W/C Oklahoma, particularly from near I-40 and west of I-35 (say about near El Reno and a tad north).
The things that seem to really stick out are both the very high CAPE in place as progged by the RUC (near 6000) and a modest SRH of around 150-200 (more as you head north).
A developing lee cyclone is forcasted in Colorado as well as the stationary / warm front stretching from NW to SW over the northern part of the state. The only major negative I see is the 700 MB temperatures around 8 C, causing a potential cap.
A dryline mixing out eastward late in the day may help with the cap, and the RUC 12 hour does break out a blob of 3-hr precipitation in SW Oklahoma around 23z.
Eric Bucsela
EF2
In NW and N central OK, near the intersection of the dryline and warm front, the 850 and 700 hPa temperatures are cooler than in the SW part of the state. And the shear is better. If a storm could form there, the environment would be excellent - NAM says 0-3 km EHI will be around 7.
EDIT: 15Z RUC says 0-3 km EHI in NW OK will be off the charts (> 12 !)
if the warm front makes it that far north. And as others have pointed out,
storm speeds would be managable today. Please let the cap break!
EDIT: 15Z RUC says 0-3 km EHI in NW OK will be off the charts (> 12 !)
if the warm front makes it that far north. And as others have pointed out,
storm speeds would be managable today. Please let the cap break!
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Matt Gingery
We are staged in Stillwater, Ok. after yesterday's chase. Looking at the latest guidance I am really liking the 5000+ CAPE across SW Oklahoma this afternoon. I have been monitoring the boundary make its slow return to the NW. One area in particular that shows a stronger surge in this boundary is SW Oklahoma. Td returns have surged in the past few hours and abundant clearing ahead of this initial return has caught my eye. Will wait and monitor visible satellite for any Cu fields that pop up later this afternoon. If any storm can go up in this set up it will be very explosive and quickly become severe. Today will be a much easier chase day with slower storm motions and better contrast. Targeting W Central Ok., Central and SW Oklahoma at this point, although risk is possible along the entire boundary.
David Mayhew
EF0
I might position in Lawton/Snyder later on. Good road networks to reposition. Looks like the CAP is pretty strong further south.
Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Target for Today, May 11
Chase target:
20 miles east of Woodward, OK.
Timing and storm mode:
Storms should develop after 7 PM with supercells likely early in storm evolution before a transition into multicells. Storm motion will be towards the northeast at 15 mph.
Discussion:
Today may be a “sleeper†setup. This will not be a widespread outbreak as Monday was; however, storms should form along a retreating WF by early evening in NWRN OK, and possibly S along the DL in WRN OK. ULVL ridging will persist in the wake of Monday’s potent shortwave. Capping will persist throughout much of the day, owing to weak forcing. Two impulses will eject from the WRN CONUS trough over the next 36 hours. This evening, a lead wave will approach the panhandles and later WRN KS and OK. A more significant speed max will eject during the day Wednesday, setting the stage for another active day.
At the SFC, low pressure will track SLY E through the OK panhandle through 03Z, with a WF extending to the E and SE across NRN OK. A DL will mix EWD into WRN OK through early evening. Forcing and convergence will remain weak through 00Z due to the ridging in place until early evening when increasing assent approaches from the W. Diurnal storm initiation appears certain during the early evening hours along the WF. Capping and weak forcing should inhibit convection along the DL today. LLVL directional shear will increase after 00Z as SLY H85 flow increases over backing SFC flow along and N of the WF. SFC-3km SRH in excess of 300m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPEs AOA 3000J/kg will support storm organization. Overnight, storms will evolve into a large MCS as the LLJ increases to 40-45 kts.
- Bill
9:55 AM CDT, 05/11/10
Chase target:
20 miles east of Woodward, OK.
Timing and storm mode:
Storms should develop after 7 PM with supercells likely early in storm evolution before a transition into multicells. Storm motion will be towards the northeast at 15 mph.
Discussion:
Today may be a “sleeper†setup. This will not be a widespread outbreak as Monday was; however, storms should form along a retreating WF by early evening in NWRN OK, and possibly S along the DL in WRN OK. ULVL ridging will persist in the wake of Monday’s potent shortwave. Capping will persist throughout much of the day, owing to weak forcing. Two impulses will eject from the WRN CONUS trough over the next 36 hours. This evening, a lead wave will approach the panhandles and later WRN KS and OK. A more significant speed max will eject during the day Wednesday, setting the stage for another active day.
At the SFC, low pressure will track SLY E through the OK panhandle through 03Z, with a WF extending to the E and SE across NRN OK. A DL will mix EWD into WRN OK through early evening. Forcing and convergence will remain weak through 00Z due to the ridging in place until early evening when increasing assent approaches from the W. Diurnal storm initiation appears certain during the early evening hours along the WF. Capping and weak forcing should inhibit convection along the DL today. LLVL directional shear will increase after 00Z as SLY H85 flow increases over backing SFC flow along and N of the WF. SFC-3km SRH in excess of 300m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPEs AOA 3000J/kg will support storm organization. Overnight, storms will evolve into a large MCS as the LLJ increases to 40-45 kts.
- Bill
9:55 AM CDT, 05/11/10
James Aydelott
EF1
Cap is really strong south of I-40. I'd prefer an Enid to Woodward staging area. It will be a later show than yesterday.
Russ Conlon
EF0
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2010
- Messages
- 34
Some more 12Z model magic just like yesterday. I agree Matt. I'm really liking this more and more. 55 Kt 6Km bulk shear with impressive CAPE. NAM and GFS are indicating that CAP will start to break down starting at 21Z and be non existent over a large swath of west central and central OK by 00Z. Latest satellite imagery is showing hints of cloud breakup over the NW surging warm/moisture boundry over Oklahoma. Possible disintegration of cloud breakup seems to be confirmed by escalating temperatures shown on the Mesonet in visually looking at the pockets of breakage in eastern OK. I wonder if this might turn into some sort of a backdoor event.
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Eddie Natenberg
EF1
I am pretty convinced that the cap will try to break today and with a deeper and moist BL coupled with impressive CAPE I see the chance for a big isolated event tonight. I believe that without much forcing it might be a late show until 850 WAA gets underway, but I could see storms continuing to be rooted in the boundary layer after dark, especially where the LLJ is strongest in central OK. My only concern is weaker 0-3km shear and low 700mb VV just before 00z might cause updrafts to struggle before dark otherwise I see the possiblility of low coverage/high impact storms with the chance of isolated strong tornadoes into the evening.
Target: Lawton, OK
Target: Lawton, OK
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Currently looking over data here in Enid, Oklahoma and I can see the moisture return (low Cu coming in from the SE) associated with the warm front. I am going to head west a bit, maybe towards Seiling and possibly south from there.
I like the warm-front and dryline triple point, weaker cap north of I-40, VERY high CAPE, and terrain in that area. Slower storm motion and no "outbreak" everywhere stuff (we cannot be in two places at one time).
Currently looking over data here in Enid, Oklahoma and I can see the moisture return (low Cu coming in from the SE) associated with the warm front. I am going to head west a bit, maybe towards Seiling and possibly south from there.
I like the warm-front and dryline triple point, weaker cap north of I-40, VERY high CAPE, and terrain in that area. Slower storm motion and no "outbreak" everywhere stuff (we cannot be in two places at one time).
Well Id consider heading out today but distance is main limiting factor for me here in Wichita. Everything Ive looked at suggests WRN and SWRN OK is the target of the day. Even the RUC put a supercell right over Elk City at 00Z and its the only area of precip it shows all day. Id like to play somewhere closer to home, say NWRN OK, but Im not seeing any indications of the cap breaking there. Call me crazy but Im siding with the RUC a bit today since it looks like it has best handle on things and going by that, it has the cap holding strong in END with -213 J of CINH at 00Z.
Having said all that, may just go halfway today to Alva and see how it looks and if something is looking like it might fire in the vicinity Ill head down that way. Of course it goes without saying that all severe parameters are all on high end so IF ANYTHING DOES GO, it will be very spectacular.
Having said all that, may just go halfway today to Alva and see how it looks and if something is looking like it might fire in the vicinity Ill head down that way. Of course it goes without saying that all severe parameters are all on high end so IF ANYTHING DOES GO, it will be very spectacular.
Aside from the outstanding instability and strengthening wind fields to increase low level shear, I agree that the big limiting factor will be the cap. Yesterday, the Hi-Res Rapid Refresh pretty much nailed the activity in S KS/N OK. In fact, I was very impressed with how well it did on timing, location, and even character of the precip (it predicted a broken line of supercells in OK and far S KS as well as a linear mode in C KS). Thus, I figure it's worth using today. In looking at the reflectivity matrix for the last few HRRR runs, it seems to really be backing off on the development of convection this afternoon in KS/OK. Over the course of a few runs, the HRRR went from showing a cluster of storms/supercells in OK to having little/no convection in OK.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
How well did this HRRR do handling the storms from OKC south to the Red River?
Forecast composite reflectivity @ 23Z
All in all I thought the HRRR did quite well on a run to run basis. Didn't seem to be a single run that stuck out. For the most part, it showed supercell development statewide and it definitely nailed the timing too.
