5/10/10 NOW: KS, OK, TX

[Jason McKittrick]

Amazing temperature gradient indicated by the RUC forecast on the SPC Meso page, over northern NM at this hour 11C between TCC and the Colorado border with a 100 kt jet max now crossing into west TX. Cold temps aloft now spilling into western KS and northern TX panhandle where convective cumulus are now forming and SPC has just issued a tornado watch for western KS.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Initiation is now occurring over SW KS near triple point. Radar and satellite indicates the warm front now stretches from near DDC se to near Vance AFB and south from there into the OKC metro. Dryline extends south from DDC and nearly straddles the TX/OK boarder. Impressive dry punch now occurring across the TX panhandle region. Dewpoints west of the dryline range from 5 at TCC to the mid 20's closer to the boundary. Winds are out of the west gusting to 55mph at times with many locations reporting blowing dust.

The storms that have initiated near DDC are discrete but small. It appears that they may be of the mini supercell variety as the oldest storm is now tripping the meso algorithm.

MCD was just issued for northcentral Oklahoma TW maybe needed with in the hour.

 

[Jason Persoff]

Satellite has bubbled alive in the past hour. Definitive Cu line with nice long TCu shadowing occuring on the dryline in the TX/OK PH. Cu field separating out in Central OK. I like the backing winds along the OK/KS border near Central OK and this area has had a consistent "nose of the dry punch" look based on 3hr Td changes. If I were out, I'd like Woodward OK, to Spearville, KS, at the moment. Spearville appears to be on the triple point and is on the left front exit region of the H5 jetstreak favoring excellent lift. LI's are also deepening (-8 currently in that region).

Virtual target: Spearville, KS. Rightward moving storms off a discernable OFB will be irresistable chasing. Pratt and areas east look primed.

 

[Willoughby Owen]

Mike Umscheid just posted this wall cloud from near Scott City KS: http://www.underthemeso.com/blog/?p=1372

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

OKLAHOMA NOW

TCU new storms back building VICI down to I-40.

 

[Adam Atkins]

Warm sector initiation in the last 30-60 minutes. Judging from the cap strength on the DFW 18z sounding, storms may struggle for the first hour or so to become supercellular. KAMA 18z sounding shows 100 kt H5 jet streak...models might have underforecast the magnitude (15z RUC shows ~10 kt lower speeds). I can't remember the last time I was so sure of destructive tornadoes. Highest probs I've ever seen on a watch before as well.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

The storms near DDC are likely elevated at this time. Radar indicates what is likely the warm front lying just south of these storms. However, initiation has occurred in west central Oklahoma near Vici. This storm is moving into a very favorable environment. 1km EHI is an 8 and sig tor of an 8 in this area. This storm is located in the left front exit region of a 90Knt jet max which is now nosing into west central Oklahoma.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

Latest RUC shows the CAPE higher than was forcast up into KS near the bulge. Allready hitting near 4000. Up to 5500 by 5PM.

 

[Michael Riedl]

Latest RUC shows the CAPE higher than was forcast up into KS near the bulge. Allready hitting near 4000. Up to 5500 by 5PM.

The RUC is notorious for over estimating instability. Now is it doing that right now? Hard to tell but it over estimates alot.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Satellite indicates clouds rapidly erroding in southern KS. DP along the western edge of the grunge are near 70 in several locations with SE surface winds. The environment, as storm reach the warm front later, are going to be insane.

Storm east of Woodward has split, both the left and right split bot show signs of rotation on radar.

 

[Jason Persoff]

T/Td spreads in Pratt to Spearville line suggest these will rapidly become sfc based with very low LCLs (right now Pratt reporting 69/68!). I still favor the triple point especially with the long looping hodographs in that area.

That said, just south of the OK border is probably going to be very vigorous, and the one dominant storm on the radar looks like it could be a storm-consumer. Need a rightward deviant storm to improve the hodographs in that region, but all of this in the area of highest lift from the jet.

Just a textbook example...man is it early in the day too...

EDIT: Take a look at the current H5 analysis for an example of a potent, perfectly oriented jet streak. http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s14/500mb/500mb.gif?1273519963875

 

[Geoff Manikin]

cu field now all the way south to the TX/OK border indicating at least some chance of development well south of I-40. may be some good plays on more isolated cells in south-central OK as an alternative to the cells racing towards southern KS.

btw, regarding high cape in the RUC, the model cape field is really more of a "moist static energy" field that does indeed tend to show values much higher than 'regular' cape.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Southern storm near Vance AFB appears to be splitting again. I suspect in this situation all of these storms will have tornado potential, last left split has looked better from a radar vantage point for the last 45 minutes or so. Lowest tilt Storm Rel Vel from Vance AFB have not been that impressive on either storm to this point.

Left split is also splitting now....and the warm front appears to be redeveloping east and northward from near Salina to Tulsa. South of this boundary winds are becoming more southerly, dewpoints are in the 60's and skies are sunny or atleast broken...

 

[Jeff Duda]

Wow the left split anticyclonic supercell just got TOR warned. It would be cool if it produced an anticyclonic supercellular tornado. Been awhile since one of those has been documented.

 

[John Farley]

Wow the left split anticyclonic supercell just got TOR warned. It would be cool if it produced an anticyclonic supercellular tornado. Been awhile since one of those has been documented.

That cell has reported movement of 80 mph, so it won't be easy to document, unless you are exactly the right place at the right time.