4/3/07 FCST: TX / AR / TN / KY / MO / IA / IL / IN

[Kevin Askew]

Yes most seem on same page, what I meant was not picking up on a severe wx episode in general. That was yesterday... Yes all seem in agreement a episode of some shape will occur. A few more sheer parameters come into place it could get ugly. Wont bet on anything until day 1. Regardless, will be chasing/spotting as usual. Havin fun doing it. Will hopefully get on the storm of the day in our region. LOL
Kevin

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I don't know. It's certainly a powerful system capable of producing a good sized severe weather episode, but looking at it for chase prospects it just doesn't look as good to me yet. I still don't like how fast the low moves. The low still looks to move from Missouri in the morning to near Ohio by nightfall. I can only assume any storms forming near the low are just going to be flying by. If I had to pick the most optomistic source of info for this set up it would be the SPC's day 3. They make it sound more enticing than looking at the models.

Instability still appears quite good, so that's a plus. I like that this is a fresh system, meaning that we aren't chasing the leftovers of a plains outbreak the day before. The air should be uncontaminated and we won't be worrying about recovering from a morning mcs. Winds upstairs are screaming, so speed shear is good. Directional shear is another story. Surface winds are still way too sw'erly for me to get too excited about supercells and tornadoes yet. As the SPC hinted at, it may be more of a wind event with bows and line segments, with maybe a chance at some ebedded supercells and rain hidden tornadoes.

We'll see, maybe with time the system will slow down a little bit, and we can hope it becomes a little more negatively tilted or I think we'll be chasing shelf clouds. As it stands, I will be chasing merely because I already have the day off and it looks like the last decent shot at severe weather for at least two weeks in the midwest.

 

[SteveCarter]

There seems to be a LOT of poossibilities with this system....for sure. Everything seems to be coming together, but the speed IS reason for concern. H5 Flow along the base of the upper low in excess of 100 KTS is a GOOD thing. Vertical shear, instability, DP's...all look favorable. To early to pick a target, but if I HAD to..lol...it would be Metropolis, IL to Mt. Vernon, IL. GREAT road structures there too. Straight roads, and a virtual checkerboard of paved roads, and VERY flat terrain. My favorite area to chase. Not getting very conclusive soundings from the NAM or GFS.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Not sure I would call that part of Illinois "great" at all. Once you get south of Mt. Vernon it's basically all hills, and winding roads, very similar to southern Indiana. North of Mt. Vernon is a different story, however.

If I had to pick an area that looked the best based on 18z models it would be eastern Illinois into northern and central Indiana. The 18z run slowed it down a little, and actually slightly improved directional shear. Maybe we're on to something with that, but it always seems like the 18z runs like to have a mind of their own.

 

[david diehl]

Was trying to look at the buflit nam data, unfourtunally I cannot load any recet dats for it.
Looking at the GFS however, Lafayet indiana is showing a nice shoot to supercell by 19 Z and droping back out by 22Z, not sure, thinking about chasing it, but no gas, so unless I can find someone top chase with that day, I will more than lileky be sitting in the arm chair chasing that day

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Looking at models myself, as an Indiana chase is not terribly far for me in Dayton, OH.

I see a rapidly developing surface low, but moving rather fast and swinging a cold front through by 12z wednesday. Upper winds are WSW but surface winds are going to be SW (maybe SSW if lucky and they back a bit more).

I am debating whether to head out tomorrow, but I most likely will not venture too far west of Indiana given the fast moving system. Definitely wait for tonight / tomorrows early outlooks and data!

 

[Ray Walker]

How about adding Oklahoma to this thread? It looks as though the most intense storms will be in Arkansas and mossouri, but Oklahoma and NE texas also look ok. Instabillity will be very strong to possibly extreme across this area, and shear looks good given the amount of instability in place. However the only thing I see that is a problem is the cap. If the cap can, and probably will be broken then intense supercells appear likely.

 

[Terry Tyler]

i really like the forecasted nam sounding out of lzk...im probably setting up somewhere in northeast AR and find a good library, but i dont know...gas sure is expensive in a blazer...looks like a large hail damaging wind pattern with that uni-directional shear, so i dont know yet...im only going if it changes to a more tornadic profile...

 

[SteveCarter]

This is a tough one to call. The probabilities of tubes seem somewhat marginal at best. (Large)Hail likely, and some great storm structures too. It's spread out over such a large area, it makes it hard to zero in anywhere, and the speed of this thing is still screaming. On the plus side..for me..it's not a terribly long drive..about 450 miles one way. 6 hours..(I drive fast..lol) Dilemma. If I DID go, I think still...southern tip of Illinois. Thinking linear may be more of a reality here too.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm watching my local area here in MI as the warm front pushes north (hopefully). Low level shear will be quite impressive, and if we can build a tight enough gradient along and just south of the warm front, we might be looking at a decent (although weak) tornado potential. Elevated instability along and north of the front should provide a large hail threat...

Also, not exactly severe weather, but the potential for flooding is quite high. I know there is still a ton of standing water around my area, and with widespread 1-3 inch rains (locally higher), things could get wet pretty quick.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

This is a tough one to call. The probabilities of tubes seem somewhat marginal at best. (Large)Hail likely, and some great storm structures too. It's spread out over such a large area, it makes it hard to zero in anywhere, and the speed of this thing is still screaming. On the plus side..for me..it's not a terribly long drive..about 450 miles one way. 6 hours..(I drive fast..lol) Dilemma. If I DID go, I think still...southern tip of Illinois. Thinking linear may be more of a reality here too.

That's a LONG drive for this set up, especially if you plan on chasing in the forrests of southern Illinois. Not to be a downer, but I can't think of a worse place to chase in the area. Down there it will likely be a screaming squall line early in the day anyway.

I still plan to chase since it looks local and I have the afternoon off but I'm still not overly thrilled by the setup. Funny how this thread started off so active with talks of "palm sunday revisited" but now there's only a couple posts per day now that the event has finally arrived. Reality?

I'll probably set up near the Illinois/Indiana border and hope that I can catch a small bow or some rogue supercell that holds some tornado hope. Otherwise it appears I'll be setting up for shelf cloud photos, and then 5 minutes of high winds.

Instability is still good. Surface winds are doable... SSW to SW. Tons of forcing along the front though which is likely the killer in the event that will lead to the insta-squall line type day.

Those who were wanting to have their states added, any input on your areas prospects?

 

[rdale]

Looks like two chances for MI but neither really impressing me... History of 1" hailers over IA/WI/IL should be in the state by 4-7am, elevated instab still could result in some moderate hail but nothing too big.

Then the big question is amount of clearing combined with warm front final location, I'm not terribly excited about any tor chances in the state but another shot at hail in the late afternoon or evening.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

The more and more I look at the new moderate risk, the more I want to head out... Im just worried about timing, and primary storm mode... It would be nice to be in the 10% tor risk, but nothing happened the last time I was in it.. Good luck to everyone who goes out.. Maybe I'll cya guys out there.. Take care.

 

[Shane Adams]

Longshot chance for an isolated surprise around the DFW area late today. WRF shows isolated activity by 0Z. Despite dreadful shear profiles in this area, the instability more than makes up for it, and could set the stage for one of those "nobody saw that coming" tornadoes. I'm choosing to work, but I'm taking my gear with me...just in case.

 

[Jared Farrer]

I think I might target the effingham mclean IL area for starters. I should be able to fly north or south if need be. Not to sure on this one but it could turn out ok. That initial early morning stuff should weaken and then dissipate. Return flow should start up by about noon, along with surface heating.

If I had to guess I would guess with the sheer profile, that their could be some splitting cells with right movers being dominate. And the area should be central to southern IL. But I think pretty much the whole area could pop.