4/3/07 FCST: TX / AR / TN / KY / MO / IA / IL / IN

[Jim Hunt]

With today a work day, I will be chasing close to home in north central Indiana. I think there will be some activity but my forecasting skill are not honed enough to say anything specific.

Good luck to everyone today.

 

[Doyle McIntosh]

Central to north central Indiana looks to be my target today as well. Everything is moving to fast to go anywhere else. The clear skies over Indiana this morning are also helping to encourage this choice. Good luck everyone, and lets some good pictures!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day, all

Planning on an afternoon chase and already getting ready to leave work early. I will target central Indiana near IND for starts. I am expecting a high wind / hail event but watch those cells on the south ends of those line segments, there could be a tail-end charley storm from those.

 

[Jim Cross]

Southeast Missouri into Northeast Arkansas looks to be a good area today.I will be heading to near Caruthersville Missouri shortly and stop there for more data at the Drury Inn (good wifi) along I-55.The areas east of here in southern Illinois and Indiana look good but im not chasing in the trees and hills.Hopefully i will get some storms west or south of Caruthersville before they cross the river.Good luck to everybody that makes it out today.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Very interesting TOR potential this afternoon/evening

Probably not an exact repeat of last year's April 2nd event...but the possibilities are there for tornadic supercells. Looks like the primed airmass currently residing across SW Missouri into NW Arkansas will shove eastward towards the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley area this afternoon. A nice 6 degree 700mb cap will hold things in check until initiation after 4pm today from SE Missouri into NC/NE Arkansas. The supercells could get pretty tough as the approach the Mississippi River from S.Illinois into the MO Bootheel and NE Arkansas. This would be my chase target for this afternoon. I am liking today's potential more and more looking over the SPC Meso parameters. Good luck to those chasing today...even if the chase window is kind of short based on very tough east-southeast storm motions expected across the Mississippi River.

 

[Kelley Austin]

I agree with Brian on this one. My chase partner an I will target Jonesboro, Paragould AR area. Good WiFi around Arkansas State University and good road network to head ENE to Caruthersville to cross the river when needed.
Good luck to all those out there this afternoon and night, be careful.
The cloud cover here in North East AR ATM almost non existant. Things will most likely get heated up a little later this afternoon.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm pretty interested in the 0-3km CAPE across the lower MI area near the warm front. Looking at the case study of the April 20th 2004 event [Jon Davies], this situation fits in nicely. NAM is the most aggressive, with 0-3km CAPE in excess of 200j/kg, while the RUC is more conservative with 50-100j/kg (highest in the central portion of the state). While 0-3km helicity is somewhat impressive, most of the helicity is found in the 0-1km layer. However, a pretty big limiting factor for tornadogenesis could be LCL heights... The area near the warm front is generally AOA 1000m, while the 4/20/04 event was generally AOB 800m.

 

[rdale]

I'm beginning to get ready to drop MI from the sevwx threat - not thinking redevelopment will be severe up here...

 

[Andrew Herron]

Care to elaborate a wee bit?

I'm beginning to get ready to drop MI from the sevwx threat - not thinking redevelopment will be severe up here...

 

[rdale]

Good moisture and instability to the south of the state, squall line over IN should prevent anything from forming there and moving in, radar loop shows activity moving towards Chicago has fallen apart, everything along the front itself is meaningless.

 

[Jim Hunt]

Everything fizzled out in north central Indiana. About 1/3" of rain and some minimal lightning. It has all moved east now and should be all but gone from the state in the next 90 minutes.

Overall everything that did happen in the Indy metro area and south seemed to be wind events with dime to nickle sized hail. I am so glad I didn't blow off work for this.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Well, did get 2 of best of day. Bootheel & Meso and wallcloud, although it wasnt rotating, still a wallcloud. Guess we worked the spot just right with NE AR. cell splitter!