4/3/07 FCST: TX / AR / TN / KY / MO / IA / IL / IN

[Kevin Askew]

Thought I would start it, Let the pros finish it. From what I can see This looks like first BIG threat of 07. Any takers?
Kevin

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Im not sure yet.. Timing may not work out for me.. I would think that March 1st would have been the biggest risk.. Im headed back from IA, didnt see too much so myabe I will take a trip!!

 

[Danny Neal]

What makes you sure this is the first BIG risk of 07? At least give the reasons why you think so.....what is it exactly that you see and what exactly makes this so noteworthy? j/w?

 

[SteveCarter]

Not sure where you think this "BIG" outbreak would come from. Maybe I'm missing something somewhere. 2/24 and 3/1 were already pretty big. If I'm not mistaken, both were high risk days. I chased both, but don't remember which was what. Where do you see this severe wx coming from on Tuesday?

 

[Robert Dewey]

I think you really need to add IN/OH/MI to this thread too... If the NAM pans out, the GL area would be looking at quite an outbreak as very good low level shear exists above an area of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE on the order of AOA 2000J/KG), all ahead of a well established boundary. The system doesn't really blow up any warm sector precipitation until it reaches the IL/IN area, so there shouldn't be too much in the way of previous-day debris to contend with.

The positioning of the system is pretty close to the Palm Sunday 1965 event, but the strength is much weaker (i.e. Palm Sunday featured 500mb winds of 135knts).

I definitely wouldn't say with certainty that this won't be a big outbreak (at least a SVR outbreak -- TOR potential is always up in the air)... While the likelyhood is relatively small, it can't be completely ruled out.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Maybe I should have said for this region? Anyway for this region it looks good for at least a heck of a squall line but if other parameters come together IE sheer, this will be a good one.... Instibility is no question but wind fields look suspect for a "Major" event. Besides when I started this I took quick overview of setup. It still looks like the first big event for our region. Regardless of tornado threat. Hope this clarifies privious post Steve, Daniel...
Kevin

 

[Kevin Askew]

BTW, thanks for changing topic. I dont know how to change it lol.

 

[Danny Neal]

Maybe I should have said for this region? Anyway for this region it looks good for at least a heck of a squall line but if other parameters come together IE sheer, this will be a good one.... Instibility is no question but wind fields look suspect for a "Major" event. Besides when I started this I took quick overview of setup. It still looks like the first big event for our region. Regardless of tornado threat. Hope this clarifies privious post Steve, Daniel...
Kevin

It does thank you, just wondering what your point of view was. Not trying to be an ass. I really haven't taken a good look ahead, I am still focused on todays events. Although I think I may be on the cold side of this system if the dates match up with the temps predicted. I will go through it a little bit later on before I match up exactly what I want to say......

Danny

 

[Grady Joslin]

For some reason I just got an uneasy feeling about this. I probably be coming into this storm system late, but the thought of making a mad dash to Washington County, Indiana if not further north from Louisville after work is kind of unsettling.

Been looking at different forecast... its almost as if this low may come to a point where it may do a whip lash through southern Indiana. But then again I could be looking at this wrong.

I'll pack my stuff in my van that day and see what happens. But it could be one of the first biggest threats at least for my area.

Anyone in the southern Indiana who may consider going after this?

 

[SteveCarter]

Well, that clears it up a bit for me too. I haven't seen anything yet that looks that terribly good, but....that doesn't mean much, considering I've only glanced at the extended forecast. I hope something does happen in S IN since it's only a 7 hour drive from here, and THAT's not far compared to a lot of chases. One thing tho...southern Indiana is saying there IS a chance of severe weather tuesday afternoon, and evening...so....who knows?

 

[Jared Farrer]

This system is still looking good on the latest runs. One thing I thought I would share though is southern IN is a very hilly place, along with dense forests everywhere. Very frustrating place to chase, I have had experience chasing in this area and it sucks. Their are however pockets of better terrain here and there. But if things continue to look like they do the chase area will be widespread enough to warrant better terrain up in the northern areas.

And yes this will be (IF) the first real big day in a long time. I cant remember the last nadors we have even had modestly close to this area.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I think it looks alright, but nothing to go ape about for chasing. This system just screams through the area. The front begins at 12Z in Missouri/Kansas and ends the day in the middle of Indiana. Surface winds could also be better. Southwest winds will make things want to go linear. Winds upstairs are good though, as is instability so I suppose it warrants watching. Doesn't scream big outbreak to me right now though. I'm also not sure why anyone would want to chase southern Indiana. You'd have better luck chasing Missouri. With the way the set up is looking now, you have plenty more chaseable options than that. If you don't want to pay for gas to go further, you may as well stay home because you'll just be wasting gas by chasing southern Indiana anyway.

 

[Brian Stertz]

At first glance of the 00z ETA, the hopes of sig severe would be across SE Missouri/MO Bootheel into extreme NE Arkansas. Lots of time for the models to sort this one out. Not a whole lot of upper support per se, but surface based instability ahead of the front looks late April like.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Weird some of the WFO's arent picking up on this. Seems SPC is thinking rapid development will be here & moving into ohio valley area wth threat of tornadoes. I would think as SPC gets better handle on it, so will local WFO's.

 

[rdale]

All HWO's that I'm seeing from the area talk about the potential so I'm not sure what you mean by "not picking up" on the event... If you expect them to add "tornadoes and damaging winds" to the zones at T-2 days that's a little much ;>