4/25/09 FCST: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Brian Stertz]

I can definitely see some merit to start the chase tomorrow a county into the E. Texas Panhandle. Right now, if the 18z ETA is to believed, there is one major bullseye in that climatologically favored area around Canadian TX. The 0-1km EHI values skyrocket at or shortly after sunset....with values approaching an astonishing 10 at 03z. This bullseye stays fairly constant and moves very little with favorable LCL's (sub 800m.) located over NW Oklahoma. So one would think that any supercell in that general area of the boundary will be maximizing things a great deal....with increasing unimpeded warm/moist inflow, moisture pooling, and strong LL shear. Current thinking is my target is Glazier TX (N.Hemphill Co.) and will be headed off early tomorrow morning from KC with Rich & Ryan Thies. I was kind of balking at chasing tomorrow, but this one is a pretty solid setup that I could not pass up and does not cause me to burn a valuable vacation day !!

 

[Tim Marshall]

Looking at the 00z NAM, I agree with the group that tomorrow is a chase day for the eastern TX panhandle. Low-level moisture will be in place (finally), the shear looks great, and a dryline bulge is forecast to be near Pampa, TX by evening. Hoping for an isolated supercell along the caprock. Sunday will depend on how much convection is generated overnight Saturday, but it is a possible repeat in the same area, this time with the upper dynamics. tm

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Not much to add aside from agreeing with everyone else that the E TX Pan will be the place to be tomorrow, but I was checking out some forecast soundings and there aren't many close by in the warm sector for that target region, but the forecast sounding at Clinton, OK after dark (03z) looks pretty impressive. Check out the size of that hodograph!

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=NAM&STATIONID=CLK

My prelim. target for tomorrow is Canadian, TX. This maybe the first setup this year I even have the slightest clue where I may target the night before!

 

[Angie Norris]

Taking a compromise between the WRF and GFS, I think my starting place would be the Woodward area, staying just south and east of the triple point.
Once again, I'll be sitting this one out being stuck at work again. Y'all be careful and happy hunting!

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Ok so here it is, it looks mighty tasty tmrw, im liking the Woodward OK area as well, idk something about the area itself draws me there, so JINX' ill be leaving Omaha NE tonight and head for Woodward, however my gut is giving a little bit more south the way tonight played out? who knows good luck to all and lets keep the chase days coming.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Also like Woodward as a good starting point. Depending on the ultimate track of the TP, could end up in TX or heading north a bit. We'll see tomorrow I guess. Thinking a bit about time of day, as it looks like things maximize very close to sunset and then really seem to kick into gear. Hopefully something interesting before then ... certainly can't complain about storm motions. Have fun out there ...

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I'll be leaving at 9:00 am for Wheeler, TX. Good luck to everyone chasing, I'll make a final pre-chase blog post in a couple of hours on www.texasstormchasers.com.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I'll be leaving Norman about 10:00 tomorrow morning. I'll initially target Higgins, Texas, right by the border. I'll then adjust west or east as needed.

 

[W. Grant Dade]

After looking at the 0Z NAM I am pretty excited about tomorrow's chances. Good instability and nice shear. Strong cap should keep things isolated. LCL are a little high over the Eastern Panhandle but lower into the evening across western OK. Leaving Tyler around 7AM. Should hit my target, Shamrock, TX around 2PM. Good luck to everyone and I hope to maybe meet some of you for the first time tomorrow.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I won't spend much time to restate what many have written in this thread in the past 12 hours. However, I will say that I think there is a conditional threat for strong to violent tornadoes after dark tomorrow across western Oklahoma. The forecast hodographs for some sites in western OK (such as Clinton, which was posted earlier) indicate 400-550 m2/s2 0-1km SRH, and the entire hodographs (through 6-8 km AGL) look very nice in the 00z-6z time frame. The 00z soundings from tonight are showing (finally!) deep rich moisture advecting into the southern Plains. For example, check out the [urhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/09042500_OBS/BRO.gif]BRO sounding from tonight[/url]. Heck, with what we've seen this year, I'd even be okay with LCH's moisture profile.

Of course, the threat is conditional since we first must have initiation. I'm not seeing much of any forcing aloft tomorrow that will help (e.g. very little seen on 500 mb Vort and UVV charts), so I think we'll need to rely heavily upon the dryline and, most likely, the front. I like how the front rather rapidly lifts northward after dark, when deep moisture should surge through northwestern OK and into southern KS. The 500 mb flow could be a bit stronger to bump up deep-layer shear, and we may see some wet structures (e.g. HP, perhaps), but I'll chase regardless. Right now, it looks like the area between Canadian and Shamrock, TX, would be a good starting target. I hope to be in western OK by sunset, since low-level shear will be highly supportive of strong tornadoes near and after dark.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Any thoughts on DL position in relation to the caprock tomorrow? With little to aid forcing (besides DL/CF movement), just wondering about thoughts for a little additional lift over the caprock. It's close enough to seem do-able at this point and sure would be nice to chase up there. Just wondering if there is any room for magic in this setup ...

About 30 mins out of Woodward now ...

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Taking a look at the GFS - the triple point on that modeling is placed nearer to the Avla OK area at 21Z and then actually has it beating a slight retreat to Buffalo and even further back at 03Z Sunday. I think Woodward, Oklahoma would be a good choice to begin assessing the situation at around three or so, and then moving either north or west from there (or just staying put, if the actuality hits between the two models).

EDIT: Is that a hiccup that the GFS is doing at 00Z for 0-70mb AGL CAPE? Wow.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Currently on the road from Illinois.. In central MO now..

The link Michael O'Keefe posted pretty much sums it up..

Things could get going by 00z, with the cap possibly eroding, but shortly after dark things go CRAZY!! Hodos loop way the heck out there, and LCL's drop WAYY down to 200M!

GFS touch further north, but has the hodos looping way out with 3k plus cape by 00z, with not much of cap to speak of..

Looking at the clinton, ok area right now.

With a northwest move possible. Just going to keep a close analysis on how the system progresses. Good luck all.

 

[Bill Hark]

Saturday is looking like a great chase day. I had the opportunity on Thursday to schedule a flight out for a one day chase but decided not to because of expense and concerns about sufficient moisture. Now that it is too late, the models are much more impressive. At the 500 mb level, an approaching trough will give SW winds of 40 kts with some divergence across the Texas Panhandle per the 00Z NAM. The winds will increase over night. The cap will suppress development until late in the afternoon and evening. I’d rather have a few storms develop than everything exploding at once. The NAM also has the 850 winds backing along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma border. A low will move through NE Colorado giving nice SE surface winds in that same area though the GFS shows the low sitting New Mexico. The NAM also has an isolated area of precip breaking out in the TX Panhandle by 00Z with the GFS showing the precip slightly to the east. This almost corresponds to a predicted CAPE bullseye of about 2500. SRH will be at least 200, higher to the north, and will dramatically increase overnight. Everything looks good. All the ingredients are coming together. .I’d prefer the 500mb winds to be slightly higher but 40 should be enough. Storm motion should also be slow enough for an easier chase. I think there is a decent chance of photogenic tornadoes.. My preliminary target is Canadian, Texas.

Bill Hark

 

[Jeremy Jones]

Good luck to all chasing tomorrow! I will be heading out by 11:00 tomorrow morning. I will be starting in the Woodward, Arnett, Wheeler Triangle area, then adjusting from there. I hope to see some of ya'll out there tomorrow!