Amos Magliocco
EF5
Thought we'd try to record the tornadoes from outside the circulation today. Like the Pampa area and south ahead of the dry punch. Checking data in CDS currently about to head north.
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4/23/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS / NE
- Thread starter cedwards
- Start date
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Gabe Garfield, Jana Houser (OU grad students), and I are en route to Shamrock. I think this will be a fairly good middle ground, and I can't really find a reason to pin-point a target any more than "eastern TX panhandle". Temps in southwestern OK have jumped into the upper-70s, so I can't imagine we'll see much less than 2000-2500 j/kg CAPE by afternoon, particularly if we keep 64-66F Tds. I find it interesting that all of the high-resolution WRF runs from last night (two 4km runs, and a 3km run) all show initiation in the TX panhandle east of AMA today, but the operational NAM didn't show much in the way of precip until after 0z, with very limited sfc convergence until that time (by no coincidence). The significant reduction in MLCAPE compared to SBCAPE in western TX per mesoanalysis harkens to shallow moisture out there, which in turn may mean that we will see a dryline bulge this afternoon as insolation allows for strong mixing out there. Of course, that's conjecture, since I haven't looked at a whole lot in the past hr.
Summary: Currently west of Yukon on I40. Heading for Shamrock. Like the area from Clarendon to Pampa to Canadian to north of CDS.
Summary: Currently west of Yukon on I40. Heading for Shamrock. Like the area from Clarendon to Pampa to Canadian to north of CDS.
Brian Stertz
EF5
More info digested
Looking at the 18z RUC and the parameters right now, it appears the southern deep moist theta ridge will be the one to verify during the more daylight hours. The RUC pops the SE Texas Panhandle around or north of Silverton and tracks it for Shamrock and into WC Oklahoma. Rich, Ryan, and I are still in Canadian at the library and certainly am a bit more focused on dropping south between Shamrock and possibly as far down as Quail if the RUC is right. Based on location of things, this looks like the more favorable daytime chase option. Later tonight, I could certainly see the northern target get going as the deeper moisture floods in at/after sunset. I would prefer to handle a daytime supercell moving in classic fashion from the usual breeding ground (Donley Co.) into the usual suspect area for chasing (Wheeler Co.). So as I type this, I am getting things wrapped up and ready to head on south. This will be my last post o' the day as things look right now...unless the Shamrock library is not jam packed with chasers. FYI by the looks of RUC... a pretty significant tornadic supercell races northeast from south of DDC towards the Great Bend area after dark tonight...on the lifting warm front
Looking at the 18z RUC and the parameters right now, it appears the southern deep moist theta ridge will be the one to verify during the more daylight hours. The RUC pops the SE Texas Panhandle around or north of Silverton and tracks it for Shamrock and into WC Oklahoma. Rich, Ryan, and I are still in Canadian at the library and certainly am a bit more focused on dropping south between Shamrock and possibly as far down as Quail if the RUC is right. Based on location of things, this looks like the more favorable daytime chase option. Later tonight, I could certainly see the northern target get going as the deeper moisture floods in at/after sunset. I would prefer to handle a daytime supercell moving in classic fashion from the usual breeding ground (Donley Co.) into the usual suspect area for chasing (Wheeler Co.). So as I type this, I am getting things wrapped up and ready to head on south. This will be my last post o' the day as things look right now...unless the Shamrock library is not jam packed with chasers. FYI by the looks of RUC... a pretty significant tornadic supercell races northeast from south of DDC towards the Great Bend area after dark tonight...on the lifting warm front
Van DeWald
EF2
It's interesting to check out the Spotter Network map. It appears there is a chaser convoy headed west on I40 toward AMA. Actually, during the evening of 4/21, it was also quite interesting to see the positioning of the spotters as the storms developed, and to see how they all reacted by repositioning themselves, etc. Does anyone remember that FEDEX animation that was shown about a year ago of airplanes flying into the Memphis hub, then rerouting around thunderstorms? It kind of reminded me of that, seeing all these spotters in real-time scurrying around like ants trying to get the best viewpoint (while trying to stay safe). Have a good chase to all those that are out. Looking forward to virtually chasing along with all of you.
Mark Farnik
EF5
Rapid clearing taking place over the western KS/eastern CO over the last hour or so. The latest visible satellite image shows multiple cloud streets oriented from northwest/southeast from around Dodge City, KS back to Julesberg, CO. Dewpoints are steadily rising into the low/mid 40's across eastern CO and into the upper 40's/low 50's across western KS. The shear is impressive, with 500 mb winds out of the southwest at 30 kts and 850 mb winds due southeast at 35 kts, with helicities approaching 300 ms/2 in far eastern CO and LCL's at a very favorable 750 to 1000 M/AGL. The first round of storms should form in the next few hours along the Front Range and move east/northeast onto the plains. Supercells are going to be the primary storm mode, and should be fairly discrete through the afternoon.
Around sunset, I expect the better moisture in the TX/OK Panhandles will surge north on the LLJ, reaching the area right as the best dynamics pass overhead, intensfying any existing supercells and touching off new convection, which will likely root onto any boundaries left behind the earlier convection and any cells that can remain discrete will likely become tornadic after sunset and remain so for several hours after dark. This is fast looking to be another 3/28 in terms of the right ingredients coming together for a largely nocturnal tornado outbreak, so it could be quite the crazy night across eastern CO/western KS. My preliminary target this evening: Akron, CO where there are good road options in all directions. Looks like a classic early season High Plains tornado day to me!
EDIT: SPC has just issued an MD for most of eastern CO as well as southwestern KS/the OK and TX Panhandles. Tornado watches will likely be issued soon for both areas within the next hour or so. I think it's time to start a NOW thread.
Around sunset, I expect the better moisture in the TX/OK Panhandles will surge north on the LLJ, reaching the area right as the best dynamics pass overhead, intensfying any existing supercells and touching off new convection, which will likely root onto any boundaries left behind the earlier convection and any cells that can remain discrete will likely become tornadic after sunset and remain so for several hours after dark. This is fast looking to be another 3/28 in terms of the right ingredients coming together for a largely nocturnal tornado outbreak, so it could be quite the crazy night across eastern CO/western KS.
My preliminary target this evening: Akron, CO where there are good road options in all directions. Looks like a classic early season High Plains tornado day to me!EDIT: SPC has just issued an MD for most of eastern CO as well as southwestern KS/the OK and TX Panhandles. Tornado watches will likely be issued soon for both areas within the next hour or so. I think it's time to start a NOW thread.
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