4/21/04 NOW: OK

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Dec 9, 2003
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Oklahoma
Well, I'm initiating a NOW thread as it appears that we are only a couple hours away from what could be an incredible event. SPC just issued an MCD valid across almost the entire state of OK, stating that a tornado watch will be issued by 20z (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0407.html). Instability is significant already, as even the RUC appears to be underforecasting CAPE. I would not be surprised to see a high risk on the 20z outlook...

And best of all, storm motions (Bunker's method) off the 12z ETA are only 20-30 kts!! So, it's a high instability, high shear day AND storms are only forecast to move at 20-30 kts! Now, if only the terrain was better.... ;)
 
Re: SWEAT for OK

Originally posted by Rich Pena
Hey can you guys help with this, I can't make since of this; why is SWEAT so low for OK, or does this change rapidly? http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/severe/sweat.html please help...
That graphic is from 12z, or 7am local time... That's why...

No public watch release yet... The aviation part is in, but haven't been able to get the 'public'/text version yet... Whatever the case, watch out for the monster hail. Mean storm motions are still forecast to be 20kts!
 
I'm watching an area of enhanced cu in Caddo County right now. As of the last visible image, it still had the furrowed look of strong cap, but it is persistant and in an area of enhanced convergence northeast of the approaching dryline surge. Guess I'd be in Grady County right now looking west, or even staying on 35 for data/phone/north-south ability would be fine.
 
I stepped out just now again, these things are EXPLODING. This is going to be a very big day. Hope everyone is safe and I hope no Tornadoes go through populated areas today. But with a day like today, I dunno if that's possible
 
Area of towering Cu NW of Chickasha trying to get it together. TLX radar showing some mid-level echoes developing south of Minco.

Tim
 
More convection trying to get organized to the south of Chickasha at this time.......and would be directly on a path for the OKC Metro. Ugh.
 
Severe T-Storm Warning Issued for Western Oklahoma county...hope it doesnt turn torndadic....but it may:(


Looked at the SRM VEL on the 2.5 and 3.5 slice...looks like some rotation....very very bad :(
 
The cell south of Chickasha is exploding......current speed is 30 mph, putting it on OKC's doorstep around 5:15. Norman and Moore should be ready for this one shortly. Hopefully conditions hold off for at least a little longer before these things TOR in a densely populated area. We could only be so fortunate.
 
The cell west of OKC is showing intense rotation already per velocity data, looks visually very like a TVS, extremely tight rotation. The cell is quickly developing a pronounced hook, also. Incredible

Edit: Heh, TVS looking thing disappeared on the next scan. Still some broad rotation, though...
 
Cood call, Amos. I hope OKC isn't lulled to sleep by that cell missing them on the NW side of town. The danger has only started. That right cell southwest of Norman is already kidney-beaning like mad. Could be a long-track one as well when it comes down.

This is bad.
 
Steve Miller (Dallas) reported the base on the southern storm(s) are a little high at the moment, and I noticed our dewpoint depressions are still substantial. Perhaps some localized moisture pooling will help us out when the activity gets into E OK.
 
Velocity products have not been showing any tornadic rotation, with the possible exception of the storm just west of Newcastle which is showing 50 kt of gate-to-gate (the data looks suspect though even on that one). Wonder if anyone else is seeing anything different.

Tim
 
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